Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebf1257f9f4df087a25e990e8cf3faac0931d8834cf422890c213ee3ee60ac5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 53c | 1,293$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.22 | 430 | 45.6%196 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 66c | 1,219$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.53 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 775.71$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.99 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 48c | 622.51$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.51 | 668 | 43.4%290 W · 378 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 40c | 602.61$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.11 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked No | 41c | 600.19$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.8 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 32c | 540$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed No | 40c | 526.4$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.39 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +66%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 56c | 500$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.7 | 411 | 37.7%155 W · 256 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 39c | 205.77$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 42c | 136.35$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 15c | 134.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 56c | 133.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 254 | 29.1%74 W · 180 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 15c | 128.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 34c | 126.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked Yes | 57c | 123.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 47c | 122.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 303 | 69%209 W · 94 L | +28.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 120.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 33c | 117.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 34c | 114.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 53c | 113$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 494 | 49.2%243 W · 251 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 54c | 111$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 69c | 109.16$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 58c | 105.17$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 300 | 41%123 W · 177 L | +26.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 57c | 102.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 408 | 45.8%187 W · 221 L | +30.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 51c | 101.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 697 | 58.4%407 W · 290 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…93b2backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x040a…118dbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 46c | 97.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 56c | 97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 45c | 95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 49c | 93.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 42c | 85.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 44c | 85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 576 | 54.3%313 W · 263 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked No | 59c | 84.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 51c | 82.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 577 | 57.7%333 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 59c | 81.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed No | 13c | 79.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 214 | 23.8%51 W · 163 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 49c | 79.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 53c | 72.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 33c | 72.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 69.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 39c | 69.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 31c | 68.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 66c | 67.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 615 | 21.1%130 W · 485 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 75c | 66.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 41c | 61.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 54.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87e…acd3backed No | 41c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -7.8wins | -0.46per pick | 52cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 43c | 51.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 46c | 50.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 499 | 51.7%258 W · 241 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 31c | 49.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 56c | 47.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 197 | 55.8%110 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 32c | 47.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes | 57c | 45.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 32c | 44.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 43.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4056…c4f1backed No | 47c | 41.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 660 | 67.4%445 W · 215 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 38.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 29c | 38.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 44c | 37.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 40c | 37.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 44c | 34.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed No | 51c | 34.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -6.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked No | 46c | 33.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 36c | 33.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 47c | 32.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 54c | 31.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 34c | 31.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 52c | 29.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 76c | 27.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 230 | 66.5%153 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 39c | 27.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 53c | 27.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 40c | 25.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 69c | 22.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 55c | 20.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -10.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…f233backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.