Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4af6102c59ef41b2bb0f6780fbbda0a17c8065d3db0ffc84799af7886d3a96c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 639.72$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 608.46$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.09 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8759…4fe3backed Yes | 52c | 562.57$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.04 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 549.75$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 65c | 516.2$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.35 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6527…c01fbacked Yes | 71c | 499.85$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.57 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 44c | 475.84$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.86 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 59c | 337.87$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 73c | 300$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.77 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 30c | 226.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.86 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 5c | 223.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 14c | 222.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 21c | 221.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.76 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 50c | 221.15$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.12 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 7c | 161.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.75 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 8c | 154.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 65c | 152.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 19c | 142.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.26 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 14c | 137.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.82 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked Yes | 49c | 135.71$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 135$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 30c | 120.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 120.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 76c | 107$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 10c | 102.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.9 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 22c | 100.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 37c | 97.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 91.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 53c | 88.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 55c | 85.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 26c | 83.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 30c | 81.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 54c | 80.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 50c | 76.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 19c | 72.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.83 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 25c | 67.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 63.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 76c | 57.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 22c | 53.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 37c | 53.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 39c | 51.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 44c | 50.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 53c | 50.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 80c | 50.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 46.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3163…15c2backed Yes | 67c | 46.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 73c | 45.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 72c | 45.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 25c | 42.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 27c | 40.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 68c | 40.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 49c | 39.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 38.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 35.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 56c | 30.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 40c | 29.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 48c | 28.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 79c | 26.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd009…91afbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…c64fbacked Yes | 77c | 12.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C or higher on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.