Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffad404b35af5300eddfd690fad44dbe9b877010127becd8ec3a94a53a294bd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 17c | 750.13$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.96 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 26c | 609.67$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.82 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6527…c01fbacked Yes | 17c | 557.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 530.21$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 504.38$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.6 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 9c | 466.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 8c | 466.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 421.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 343.81$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 308.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 308.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 273.65$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.34 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 263.01$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.72 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 72c | 232.09$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 225.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 9c | 220.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 13c | 196.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…6950backed Yes | 17c | 188.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed Yes | 42c | 184.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 11c | 174.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 47c | 173.32$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.93 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 165$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 54c | 165$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.16 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 26c | 155$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 155$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 50c | 154.74$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.84 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 74c | 144.09$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 61c | 134.85$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.83 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 21c | 134.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 134.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 130.04$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 126.62$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 22c | 125.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 40c | 125.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 16c | 122.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 120.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 17c | 117$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 20c | 115.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8759…4fe3backed Yes | 57c | 91.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 91.57$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 18c | 89.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 62c | 88.55$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 26c | 85.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 50c | 80.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 78.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 49c | 76.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 70.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 17c | 66.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 76c | 62.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 25c | 61.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 52c | 59.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 30c | 57.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 65c | 53.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 44c | 46.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 46.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3726…b788backed No | 76c | 45.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 41.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 73c | 40.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd52…6c56backed Yes | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…dc7abacked Yes | 35c | 34.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 49c | 32.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2a…14afbacked No | 78c | 29.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 74c | 26.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 53c | 25.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 80c | 25.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed No | 53c | 24.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 52c | 23.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…9f60backed No | 76c | 23.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 77cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 44c | 23.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 73c | 22.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 59c | 22.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 55c | 21.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 64c | 20.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 20.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 19.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 15.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C or higher on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.