Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e99cbbbba749764525f960f462caea4cabc30ee985241767ba95d5266fce0cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 39c | 2,220$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.89 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 1,074$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 540.68$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 503.87$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 29c | 500$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 412.31$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 4c | 380.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 12c | 322.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed Yes | 35c | 311.04$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.86 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 218.22$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 32c | 204.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 190$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 61c | 186.3$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.66 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 25c | 179.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 67c | 166.62$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 34c | 152.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 145$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 35c | 141.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 76c | 133.43$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 41c | 129.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…1757backed Yes | 33c | 112.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 103.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 36c | 100.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 62c | 100.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 27c | 88.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 71c | 86.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 61c | 79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 66c | 78.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 76.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 65c | 75.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 25c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed No | 78c | 63.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd52…6c56backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 34c | 59.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 28c | 56.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 63c | 53.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 21c | 52.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 73c | 52.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…8b3abacked Yes | 24c | 47.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 32c | 44.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 35c | 40.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 40.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 66c | 40.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 39.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 33c | 35.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 37c | 34.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 73c | 32.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…dc7abacked Yes | 35c | 31.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 70c | 24.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 67c | 24.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 77c | 21.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 65c | 21.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 66c | 21.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed No | 77c | 19.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 69c | 17.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…c58bbacked No | 76c | 17.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 63c | 15.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 71c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 74c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 13.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.65 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C or higher on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.