Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe54162d1a85c2383d791c2394fe5bd9c26f2f0dfa02a1b0b8b569521b679e810
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof FUT Esports, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2d0…7bbfbacked FUT Esports | 29c | 6,182$1,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,792.78 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 3,451$2,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.43 | 409 | 45.7%187 W · 222 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Natus Vincere | 71c | 2,852$2,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.15 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed FUT Esports | 47c | 1,260$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.57 | 1,276 | 32.1%409 W · 867 L | -67.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Natus Vincere | 64c | 1,218$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.2 | 785 | 62.8%493 W · 292 L | +56.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…0223backed FUT Esports | 61c | 732.16$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.85 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked FUT Esports | 49c | 650$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.42 | 509 | 44.6%227 W · 282 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af1…8bd4backed FUT Esports | 44c | 555$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked FUT Esports | 37c | 522.29$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.59 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4419…fcf4backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 504.5$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.66 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 499.99$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 214 | 57%122 W · 92 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf99…9840backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 477.59$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.4 | 180 | 49.4%89 W · 91 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 451.56$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.15 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked FUT Esports | 31c | 451.23$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.68 | 1,309 | 43.8%573 W · 736 L | -44.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked FUT Esports | 36c | 349.85$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.54 | 943 | 61.2%577 W · 366 L | +58.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00a8…d2c8backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 334.76$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.98 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed FUT Esports | 33c | 320.49$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.74 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…bf81backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 306.08$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.31 | 279 | 56.6%158 W · 121 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed FUT Esports | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 534 | 42.1%225 W · 309 L | -15.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e82…4cfbbacked FUT Esports | 54c | 272.94$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.39 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0197…1718backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 253.06$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.12 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec7…4a76backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 250$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed FUT Esports | 53c | 231.52$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.7 | 931 | 48.1%448 W · 483 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44b…4048backed FUT Esports | 24c | 206.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1ecbbacked FUT Esports | 46c | 205.28$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…b9e7backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 202.2$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.2 | 321 | 52.6%169 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 200$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1afd…427ebacked FUT Esports | 43c | 192$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.56 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…3492backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 185.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.98 | 342 | 53.2%182 W · 160 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb373…d97cbacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 175$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked FUT Esports | 46c | 167.9$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.87 | 1,247 | 49.6%619 W · 628 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed FUT Esports | 43c | 161.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…31e6backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 149.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 361 | 45.7%165 W · 196 L | +22.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…6277backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 149$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed FUT Esports | 55c | 130.14$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7126…bfcbbacked Natus Vincere | 77c | 122.25$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed FUT Esports | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 147 | 37.4%55 W · 92 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked FUT Esports | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 553 | 48.3%267 W · 286 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed FUT Esports | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 796 | 50%398 W · 398 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 88.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 409 | 44.3%181 W · 228 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a7…ca43backed FUT Esports | 46c | 87.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed FUT Esports | 36c | 77.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 396 | 46%182 W · 214 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 621 | 56.4%350 W · 271 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked FUT Esports | 41c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 520 | 50%260 W · 260 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…4880backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 72.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 205 | 47.8%98 W · 107 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea86…6fb4backed FUT Esports | 61c | 72.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked FUT Esports | 31c | 64.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked FUT Esports | 22c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 556 | 37.6%209 W · 347 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade6…c465backed FUT Esports | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 653 | 47.3%309 W · 344 L | -18.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 34.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 207 | 55.6%115 W · 92 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed FUT Esports | 44c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…11b8backed FUT Esports | 73c | 30.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed FUT Esports | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 25.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 311 | 53.1%165 W · 146 L | +15.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcce1…49c7backed FUT Esports | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…e074backed FUT Esports | 73c | 20.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…e543backed Natus Vincere | 78c | 15.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Natus Vincere | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)Natus Vincere won
- Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)Natus Vincere won
- Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group AlphaNatus Vincere won
- Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.