TailMyPicks

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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof FUT Esports, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,745
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,456

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,745 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x880b…c98bbacked Natus Vincere48c4,974$2,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,602.6626650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eaa…2094backed FUT Esports33c2,239$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.831216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbc33…eb35backed FUT Esports67c1,467$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.46862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Natus Vincere58c1,422$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.3978562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FUT Esports53c1,409$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.051,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Natus Vincere40c1,276$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.3840944.3%181 W · 228 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ee6…07cabacked FUT Esports62c1,206$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.3515160.3%91 W · 60 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed FUT Esports46c1,187$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54562156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Natus Vincere44c812.34$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.3414941.6%62 W · 87 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked FUT Esports56c657.75$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.3486747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13c8…a814backed FUT Esports41c607.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502536%9 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-38.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked FUT Esports57c606.06$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.211,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Natus Vincere51c599.43$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.3656551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Natus Vincere72c472.22$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.225455.6%30 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked FUT Esports39c454.38$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.8868949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Natus Vincere39c449.21$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.834356.9%195 W · 148 L+23.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Natus Vincere51c393.73$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19131153.1%165 W · 146 L+15.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6277backed Natus Vincere65c390.49$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.244557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked FUT Esports52c379.79$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.621,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked FUT Esports54c372.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.541,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Natus Vincere39c367.77$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff95…859cbacked FUT Esports61c361.21$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.3412056.7%68 W · 52 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf99…9840backed FUT Esports58c314.67$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.5118049.4%89 W · 91 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00a8…d2c8backed FUT Esports55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1655442.6%23 W · 31 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FUT Esports37c296.52$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.031,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Natus Vincere53c260.49$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.7540945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Natus Vincere39c257.98$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.3753442.1%225 W · 309 L-15.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Natus Vincere58c253.94$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.4419656.6%111 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked FUT Esports57c212.11$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9494361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed Natus Vincere68c175.46$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.156630.3%20 W · 46 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-47.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4aff…9200backed FUT Esports46c170$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789139.6%36 W · 55 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed Natus Vincere43c155.63$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.336145.7%165 W · 196 L+22.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xade6…c465backed Natus Vincere48c151.22$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7565347.3%309 W · 344 L-18.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37bd…ed2abacked Natus Vincere40c150$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+21.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51b6…1903backed FUT Esports46c130.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6026354.4%143 W · 120 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Natus Vincere37c125$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.4752050%260 W · 260 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed FUT Esports46c119.57$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5534253.2%182 W · 160 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked FUT Esports58c116.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8621055.2%116 W · 94 L+10.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fb1…b109backed Natus Vincere37c110$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.318254.4%99 W · 83 L+22.3wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+27.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x57d9…fa69backed Natus Vincere55c108.74$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.741471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+21.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked FUT Esports40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4025141.4%104 W · 147 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked FUT Esports37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.521153.6%113 W · 98 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Natus Vincere37c99.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6979650%398 W · 398 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22a7…ca43backed FUT Esports48c99.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked FUT Esports34c98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.281,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd001…f718backed Natus Vincere33c90$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.578052.5%42 W · 38 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…ed59backed Natus Vincere42c83.33$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3313540.7%55 W · 80 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked FUT Esports24c77.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7140731.7%129 W · 278 L-13.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Natus Vincere38c75$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3955348.3%267 W · 286 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5703…1048backed FUT Esports47c72.15$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9711445.6%52 W · 62 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5807…74dcbacked FUT Esports71c70.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.959455.3%52 W · 42 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xedfa…fd66backed FUT Esports58c70.07$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.644843.8%21 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea86…6fb4backed FUT Esports59c67.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409255.4%51 W · 41 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Natus Vincere77c66.44$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5739646%182 W · 214 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x56fb…3a1bbacked Natus Vincere74c62.41$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.495967.8%40 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick68cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x366e…cb0cbacked Natus Vincere40c62.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.147661.8%47 W · 29 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked FUT Esports59c60.88$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7942051.9%218 W · 202 L-21.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcaa5…4859backed Natus Vincere56c59.85$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.331573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+58.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfc6d…c782backed FUT Esports61c59.84$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed FUT Esports36c54.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.971,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec56…1ecbbacked Natus Vincere42c51.67$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.973540%14 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x901b…59efbacked FUT Esports39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ab6…4880backed FUT Esports39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020547.8%98 W · 107 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f9…7d44backed Natus Vincere44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284477.3%34 W · 10 L+6.2wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked FUT Esports26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.255637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed FUT Esports56c48.61$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0193148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x026b…8804backed Natus Vincere58c47.61$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8715358.8%90 W · 63 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3edb…11b8backed Natus Vincere44c46.8$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.215246.2%24 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked FUT Esports48c45.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8238548.6%187 W · 198 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed FUT Esports55c40.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.239166%258 W · 133 L+24.0wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1eb6…2ea0backed FUT Esports49c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.41225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-56.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8369…1ec0backed Natus Vincere42c35.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.592839.3%11 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f48…0b0dbacked FUT Esports59c33.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018457.1%105 W · 79 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed FUT Esports59c33.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5154342.4%230 W · 313 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dde…30b1backed FUT Esports68c30.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.041546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-29%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked FUT Esports52c30.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.696245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed FUT Esports37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.227847.1%131 W · 147 L+0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed Natus Vincere40c29.7$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.827959.5%47 W · 32 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21dd…e4f5backed Natus Vincere57c27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.596854.4%37 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc07e…9fc3backed Natus Vincere40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+21.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Natus Vincere60c17.22$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9620755.6%115 W · 92 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.