Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5820d67422c27de088715887ea7871bf91ad588d1f4d05e3b1185be9b16ee55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 36c | 1,321$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.23 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 67c | 559.3$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 372.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.99 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 342.01$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 211$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 58c | 211$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.72 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 160$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 22c | 154.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.31 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 147.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.17 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 142.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 22c | 125.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…72b2backed No | 61c | 95.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 88.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 72c | 86.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 15c | 77.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.13 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 73.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 37c | 53.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 51c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 28c | 46.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 39c | 43.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd7…e63dbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 36c | 34.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 32.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 68c | 25.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 24.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 70c | 23.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 61c | 23.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 58c | 22.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 18.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.