Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07a58239fc37b2374f0507b18ef97e9e15fdb2d8dadeb44a6edef0498f26e3b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 48c | 527.87$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 293.95$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 30c | 243.58$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 211$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 77c | 179.5$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 164.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 72c | 154.35$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 41c | 149.57$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 40c | 144.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 132.97$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 106.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 47c | 102.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 62c | 91$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 56c | 72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 56c | 68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 74c | 67.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 36c | 56.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 46c | 52.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 57c | 48.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 40c | 40.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 54c | 40.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 39.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked No | 76c | 39.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 59c | 36.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 35.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 71c | 35.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 45c | 34.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 34.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 40c | 31.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023c…99a0backed Yes | 49c | 31.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 34c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…dc4ebacked Yes | 35c | 29.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…3b3bbacked Yes | 56c | 27.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 51c | 23.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 58c | 22.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b3…e571backed Yes | 52c | 20.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…72b2backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 63c | 17.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.