NBA · resolved market

Spread: Rockets (-18.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5c7d21669107e4d9db10467c27211f752c3265551476316a276a0cf8736b308

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Rocketsof Rockets, Jazz
Resolved: Apr 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $27,931
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $28,859

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,931 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x84db…aeebbacked Rockets	50c	10,801$5,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,400.48	1,374	50.1%689 W · 685 L	+34.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Jazz	50c	10,447$5,219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,219.22	492	44.3%218 W · 274 L	+11.8wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Jazz	49c	5,561$2,725 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,724.72	1,141	48%548 W · 593 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Rockets	50c	2,676$1,351 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,324.99	1,286	50.8%653 W · 633 L	+11.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Rockets	51c	2,649$1,351 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,297.97	906	50.2%455 W · 451 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz	50c	2,487$1,244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,243.5	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e70…f06fbacked Jazz	50c	2,069$1,034 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,034.43	67	46.3%31 W · 36 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7067…e41ebacked Jazz	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Rockets	50c	1,199$599 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$600.18	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Rockets	51c	1,104$563 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$540.87	106	50%53 W · 53 L	+4.9wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Rockets	50c	970$485 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$485	629	48.6%306 W · 323 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Rockets	51c	951.57$485 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$466.27	716	54.1%387 W · 329 L	+21.1wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Rockets	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	917	46.9%430 W · 487 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ce…44c1backed Rockets	50c	388$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194	114	51.8%59 W · 55 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Rockets	51c	382.61$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$187.42	349	53%185 W · 164 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Rockets	60c	347.16$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.62	205	36.6%75 W · 130 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Rockets	59c	297.83$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.66	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Jazz	49c	295.58$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.26	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Jazz	21c	226.5$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.87	1,532	42.5%651 W · 881 L	-17.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1feb…df66backed Rockets	73c	199.24$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.19	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	66cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…763bbacked Jazz	50c	198$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	337	48.1%162 W · 175 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Rockets	51c	190.31$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.25	350	52.6%184 W · 166 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Rockets	51c	190.31$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.25	516	47.5%245 W · 271 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Jazz	47c	133.22$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.17	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Jazz	50c	110.97$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.48	1,282	43.4%557 W · 725 L	-51.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Jazz	51c	97.06$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Rockets	50c	97$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.5	533	48.4%258 W · 275 L	-8.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Jazz	32c	74.59$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.98	591	40.8%241 W · 350 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Jazz	36c	65.76$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.97	1,283	23.4%300 W · 983 L	-178.2wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x81b0…5159backed Rockets	50c	64.66$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.33	118	51.7%61 W · 57 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Jazz	51c	59$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.09	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Jazz	25c	54.52$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.63	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8ef…f7a1backed Rockets	51c	52.16$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.56	104	36.5%38 W · 66 L	-9.2wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf040…d11fbacked Rockets	51c	37.33$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.29	76	47.4%36 W · 40 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Jazz	47c	29.04$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	1,053	53.5%563 W · 490 L	-15.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ebb…1e6bbacked Rockets	51c	28.15$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.79	121	61.2%74 W · 47 L	+7.2wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Rockets	57c	26.34$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.23	1,036	47.6%493 W · 543 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Rockets	77c	25.41$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.97	369	49.6%183 W · 186 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Rockets	75c	25.33$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.21	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Rockets	53c	19.63$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.23	894	44.4%397 W · 497 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c76…2632backed Rockets	62c	18.04$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.89	68	76.5%52 W · 16 L	+12.8wins	+0.19per pick	58cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Rockets (-18.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event