South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-12-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5d4fc50ca513125b1a0955e257f48e8d466ccc55d74b24ceda8804e6bb71f6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2839…0efebacked Yes | 26c | 4,327$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,186.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 58c | 2,258$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.72 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 47c | 2,222$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.39 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 2,132$1,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.58 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 1,864$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317.06 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 62c | 1,571$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.23 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 56c | 1,170$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.98 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fe…95f7backed Yes | 26c | 951.85$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +280.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…b903backed Yes | 70c | 718.57$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.57 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 59c | 688.3$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.97 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 71c | 661.41$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.31 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…49d8backed No | 7c | 646.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe3…5470backed Yes | 25c | 640$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 25c | 537.73$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.34 | 137 | 39.4%54 W · 83 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 56c | 471.24$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.13 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…e9e3backed Yes | 55c | 455.71$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2076…bf0dbacked Yes | 27c | 444.44$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.44 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de0…0884backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +230.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…0d1cbacked Yes | 26c | 415.97$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.97 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd96…e623backed Yes | 77c | 399.78$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 28c | 341.13$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.13 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 27c | 267$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.06 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Yes | 28c | 264.29$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 72c | 241.5$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.26 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d2…f38bbacked Yes | 80c | 234$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +53%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…a7b5backed Yes | 26c | 188.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.46 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 23c | 179.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.81 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 28c | 177.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.8 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 27c | 166.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.67 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb291…271ebacked No | 76c | 150$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 61c | 149$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…88a5backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc213…80f7backed Yes | 28c | 139.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed No | 64c | 135.19$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -10.4wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -46%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…28bcbacked Yes | 80c | 125.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…c054backed Yes | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Yes | 26c | 103.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…239abacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +344.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…7934backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde80…fc4bbacked No | 79c | 91.7$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8147…ab6cbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed No | 61c | 83.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b86…b51cbacked Yes | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 72c | 77.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…3217backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…02f5backed Yes | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd35…ecebbacked Yes | 26c | 65.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…479dbacked Yes | 80c | 61.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…8c16backed Yes | 27c | 59.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 69cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0da9…9d56backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x408e…cacebacked Yes | 27c | 48.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 78c | 46.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x680b…276abacked No | 78c | 45.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…9779backed Yes | 28c | 42.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…2ab9backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75c…86d0backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe042…bb49backed Yes | 79c | 36.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 56c | 30.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9a…44cabacked Yes | 78c | 25.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…ef1bbacked No | 78c | 17.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdab…b5c1backed No | 74c | 13.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-12-02?this page
- Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. Mirassol FC end in a draw?No won
- Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2025-12-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.