Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe61f9223e736bca353e0a547821278ef3f25943238fef2ffce19dca648fa413e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 39c | 840.79$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 350.94$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 36c | 343$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.48 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 292$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 289.53$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.19 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 59c | 265.8$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.35 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 250.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 55c | 193.48$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.87 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 36c | 165.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 161.19$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 58c | 153.07$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.74 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 140.33$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 11c | 130.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Yes | 43c | 127.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 17c | 125$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 10c | 122.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 41c | 119.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 42c | 118.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 118$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 114$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 77c | 108$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 106.85$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 102.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 100.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 98.52$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 33c | 77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 73.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…c578backed Yes | 41c | 70.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed No | 76c | 59.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 34c | 58.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 33c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 68c | 57.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 40c | 50.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 60c | 47.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 39c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 46.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…26d9backed No | 63c | 42.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 39.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 62c | 39.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 31c | 38.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…00a7backed Yes | 38c | 38.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 37.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…78abbacked No | 64c | 32.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 44c | 31.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 65c | 30.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 60c | 29.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 29.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e4…a14ebacked No | 63c | 24.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 23.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 22.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…5bdebacked No | 63c | 20.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…697fbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.