Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1835ad0a0b5242b9468a0e3ac8ee138094c0f3ab289c9cab24a14049f1b4d76c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 49c | 402$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.02 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 47c | 364.95$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.47 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 306.35$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.55 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 49c | 289.54$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.15 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 51c | 260.77$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.97 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 231.47$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 201.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.83 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 171.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 50c | 156.94$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.47 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 130.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 118$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 106.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 54c | 89.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 52c | 88.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 37c | 83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 53c | 78.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 54c | 73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7111…7c21backed Yes | 56c | 71.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 45c | 70.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 68.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 21c | 66.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 66.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 65.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 31c | 60.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 48c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 57.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 52c | 56.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 55c | 54.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 42c | 53.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 46.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…e9a8backed Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 52c | 44.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 66c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 70c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed Yes | 44c | 42.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 52c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 46c | 41.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 53c | 40.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 52c | 40.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 46c | 40.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 30c | 40.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 51c | 38.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 32c | 33.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 52c | 31.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 51c | 30.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 38c | 29.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 60c | 28.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 47c | 26.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 51c | 26.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 61c | 24.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 47c | 21.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 70c | 21.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 20.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2248…53d0backed Yes | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed No | 53c | 19.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbea…d19dbacked Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.