Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe624c3e33d9bda6d76fee0ae404624b6fa315de2f1e08ac723b4a070a054477a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 23c | 1,405$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,385$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.54 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 49c | 409.79$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.9 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 401.41$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.11 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 18c | 396.36$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 327.22$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 48c | 311.54$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 276.79$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 232.32$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 214.45$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 75c | 163.78$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…b6a7backed No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 77c | 116$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 110.72$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…271dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 41c | 86.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 13c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 78c | 74.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 69.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 64.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 17c | 63.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 26c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…001ebacked No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 71c | 44.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…18efbacked No | 64c | 41.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 32.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 63c | 28.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…2541backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on August 5?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on August 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on August 5?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on August 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.