Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70c5b6f1abd39450f696b17457d55915f3de5ff183f623d92fb0e23694597585
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cad…c773backed Yes | 60c | 1,471$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.23 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…82dabacked No | 55c | 583.93$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.47 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 55c | 263.66$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.61 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 45c | 245.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.29 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 185.43$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.38 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 36c | 173.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 167.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.22 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 51c | 161.76$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.48 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 151.32$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 79c | 151.01$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 49c | 149.83$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 141.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.73 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 40c | 133.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 54c | 123.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 108.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…0ab0backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 51c | 73.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 24c | 72.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 69.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 65.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 64.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 45c | 63.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 62.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 67c | 60.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…b6a7backed No | 55c | 54.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 46c | 53.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 39c | 51.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 50.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 50.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 48c | 49.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 57c | 45.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 43c | 44.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 28c | 35.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 32c | 32.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…f83bbacked Yes | 51c | 31.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…9b39backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 31.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 48c | 29.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 42c | 26.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4f…4926backed No | 49c | 25.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.32per pick | 53cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…0d55backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 52c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3872…fa4ebacked No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed Yes | 47c | 22.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked No | 53c | 20.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0aa…3259backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7eb…275cbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 59c | 19.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on August 5?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on August 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on August 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on August 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.