TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on April 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,778
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,838

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,778 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x765f…1508backed No19c1,368$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.4833018.8%62 W · 268 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa175…82f1backed No19c989.34$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes65c602.37$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.5817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No14c588.94$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.311,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes68c553.35$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.781,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No31c513.58$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.298,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No11c494.28$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.181,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No7c485.08$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.971,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebda…75a9backed No7c457.46$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1521722.6%49 W · 168 L+0.7wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c1…c53fbacked No19c397.37$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.913122.6%7 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No35c367.36$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.2931542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No8c263.08$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.692,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes79c251.9$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.92,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed No6c251.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5996620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes77c209.33$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8411038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6035018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafb1…0329backed No47c190.49$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.958160.5%49 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1685…97abbacked No8c184.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5116740.1%67 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No9c177.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1234319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x72b1…2d82backed No27c170.43$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.244736.2%17 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-46.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed Yes66c169.01$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.621,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402a…bf33backed No28c149.97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.495046%23 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes59c134.46$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.1431029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No10c133.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.514,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c129.96$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.892,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No16c126.84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8863656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes79c120$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6623677.1%182 W · 54 L+23.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+16.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes68c107.81$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.712,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No9c106.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.067,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No24c105.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No12c97.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.641,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe14e…4286backed Yes80c96.42$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.61785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick73cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed No17c94.18$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9641046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x8cf0…ab54backed No16c92.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6616320.2%33 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eb3…d405backed Yes53c92.01$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2810247.1%48 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes70c86.93$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0849854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No17c86.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9258422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6889…f2e3backed No23c81.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.455145.1%23 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No20c78.93$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7919152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No19c78.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9133450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes75c65.03$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2959440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…137ebacked No21c64.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5713663.2%86 W · 50 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc0b…961fbacked No17c62.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.419436.2%34 W · 60 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes71c59.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5185330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No38c59.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.543,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No55c54.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.981,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No29c53.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.31,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes58c51.73$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7386847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes73c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.539541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes53c47.61$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.381421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-54.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes53c46.12$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.539,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No22c46.09$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0730442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes70c44.81$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3430046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f00…8169backed No41c43.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe358…0822backed Yes45c42$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48dc…c7d5backed Yes71c40.96$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.83771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+43%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b28…d9c1backed No47c40.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.236033.3%20 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes79c40.46$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.336,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd731…4199backed Yes60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.99273.9%68 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1cd…aecdbacked No30c39.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.78561.2%52 W · 33 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bc1…3512backed No30c39.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d3e…2e20backed No33c38.61$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.745332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x59c6…ad9dbacked Yes57c33.71$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.575853.4%31 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes71c33.17$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4721068.6%144 W · 66 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d52…c5aabacked No49c31.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4210359.2%61 W · 42 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x290c…ab10backed Yes56c31.64$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.923844.7%17 W · 21 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1335362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4a3…fc4abacked No44c29.91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2113059.2%77 W · 53 L-11.4wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-14.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2f03…42a6backed Yes52c29.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.113826.3%10 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes51c29.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5274023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3487…11f5backed Yes79c29.37$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.179653.1%51 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x497f…d987backed Yes67c29.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.522733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes70c27.64$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.297946.8%37 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes74c25.64$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.651,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes61c24.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5714617.1%25 W · 121 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No53c22.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9251631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes61c21.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.483,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes55c20.6$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.32,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x241d…be08backed Yes67c20.58$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.795024%12 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b09…e4c2backed Yes72c20.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.78742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed No61c18.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.449747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe166…7227backed Yes80c18.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.689779.4%77 W · 20 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick70cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x85c9…fcc9backed Yes79c16.17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.38683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes76c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.5531442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes75c13.26$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.261,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.