Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6c9af4318dd3889abe4e890e6c87788e0ae04cf0dd4d7dab5114dfa51bf5b4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 23c | 988.5$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.27 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 66c | 872$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.56 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 473.33$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 410.42$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed Yes | 33c | 303.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.02 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 253.09$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.78 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 215.1$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 199.46$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 174.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 166.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 165.57$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 34c | 147.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.05 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 30c | 134.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.24 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 31c | 133.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.78 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 45c | 131$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.64 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 50c | 126.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 55c | 124.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 30c | 122.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 51c | 121.86$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…ef90backed Yes | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 110.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 15c | 105.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 105.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 51c | 94.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 44c | 91.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 34c | 90.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.56 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.46 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 35c | 89.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed No | 56c | 88.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 53c | 85.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 84.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 48c | 83.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b48…fcf0backed Yes | 40c | 78.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +56%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf67b…da50backed No | 52c | 74.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 46c | 73.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 69.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 44c | 68.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 43c | 68.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 33c | 68.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 67.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 52c | 66.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 32c | 64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…eba4backed No | 51c | 63.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 60.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed Yes | 29c | 59.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 32c | 59.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 63c | 58.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 57.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 48c | 56.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 50c | 55.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 34c | 55.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 53c | 55.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 51.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 53c | 49.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 44c | 43.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 54c | 42.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 45c | 41.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 29c | 39.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed No | 51c | 39.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 79c | 37.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 38c | 37.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 42c | 36.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 39c | 33.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed2…13d7backed No | 46c | 33.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed Yes | 50c | 32.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 31.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 52c | 31.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 30.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 52c | 28.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 47c | 28.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…b662backed Yes | 54c | 27.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86cc…f46ebacked No | 46c | 25.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 54c | 24.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 53c | 24.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 23.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 48c | 22.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 50c | 20.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 59c | 18.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 58c | 17.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.