TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,592
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,817

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,592 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked No23c988.5$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.271,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No66c872$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.5647866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No56c473.33$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.18,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes50c410.42$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.685,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37df…f8b9backed Yes33c303.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.0211958.8%70 W · 49 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes27c253.09$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.781,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c215.1$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.2810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes30c199.46$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.959,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No16c174.01$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.234,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No8c166.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.16,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No41c165.57$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes34c147.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.0587629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes30c134.45$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.2454547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes31c133.02$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.783,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes45c131$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.6433746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No50c126.32$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4486952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No55c124.17$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.431,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes30c122.18$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.122,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No51c121.86$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.287,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0934…ef90backed Yes75c120$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-33.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No63c110.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.575,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No15c105.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.053,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No56c105.22$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.922,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No51c94.6$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.251,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes44c91.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0547935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed Yes34c90.1$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5619947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes31c90$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.464,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes35c89.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7940535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc0f…c1e6backed No56c88.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.565736.8%21 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes53c85.3$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.314452.8%76 W · 68 L+20.6wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+39.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes58c84.12$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.536,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No48c83.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.891,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b48…fcf0backed Yes40c78.41$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.412250%11 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+56%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes28c75$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf67b…da50backed No52c74.66$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No46c73.23$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6965353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes29c70$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.61,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No50c69.42$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.479,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes44c68.87$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8894552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes43c68.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.923,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes33c68.19$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.692564%16 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+38.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes54c67.91$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.112,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked No52c66.84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4614646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes32c64$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.461929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cc6…eba4backed No51c63.77$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No50c60.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5579…2db1backed Yes29c59.9$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5313852.9%73 W · 65 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes32c59.47$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.161,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No63c58.76$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0219648%94 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No28c57.3$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes48c56.15$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.280130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd221…4331backed No50c55.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.839746.4%45 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No34c55.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No53c55.46$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.28,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes30c51.2$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6587437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes43c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5612544.8%56 W · 69 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.521339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b23…3ca8backed No53c49.53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1323538.3%90 W · 145 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes44c43.77$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.542,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes46c43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2246148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes54c42.97$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9415051.3%77 W · 73 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No45c41.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8248743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes34c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.61952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes29c39.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2464859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c54…02e9backed No51c39.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.936150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes79c37.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9645148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes38c37.11$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9777851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1987…1d94backed Yes42c36.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.138348.2%40 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes39c33.48$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.443848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ed2…13d7backed No46c33.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdb…b241backed Yes50c32.44$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.064864.6%31 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes44c31.91$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.871,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No52c31.08$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1590555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.844,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes49c30.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6141331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes50c30.05$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.143,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked No60c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1156048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.345,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.735362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1591444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes52c28.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7317644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No47c28.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1725954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes50c28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdac…b662backed Yes54c27.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.732055%11 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86cc…f46ebacked No46c25.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.712050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x970d…022ebacked No57c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2513845.7%63 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes43c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2519039.5%75 W · 115 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes54c24.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.332,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes53c24.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.421,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No57c23.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.541,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No48c22.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9285049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes50c20.7$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2618337.7%69 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x997a…4cbebacked No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.619565.6%128 W · 67 L-0.8wins0.00per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1216453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No59c18.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No57c18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2694066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed No58c17.64$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2321451.9%111 W · 103 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes65c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9514334.3%49 W · 94 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+57.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.