MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6cc96200685d1bc628ce46a7e466dbade3e841c47303c5db2fa40c9c4f7eb06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7aa…08c3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 66c | 8,201$5,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,787.56 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 7,362$2,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,496.95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a7…418abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 31c | 1,303$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 992.21$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.63 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 66c | 960$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.4 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 812.74$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 794.71$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.17 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 72c | 516.61$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.27 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 455.08$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 405$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.9 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Milwaukee Brewers | 28c | 392.89$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.88 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 324.4$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 211.15$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac6…a8cebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 187.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 79 | 41.8%33 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 161.94$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 137$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 110.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Milwaukee Brewers | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 26c | 99.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 92.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 66c | 83.06$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 68.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 27c | 55.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 49.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…08d9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 42.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 51c | 38.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 28.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 28.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 24.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 21.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 21.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 20.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 20.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 17.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 17.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 79c | 15.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.