MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6d5a5edac7cfbaff4f0787357ee17944ee7cf03f484dc4d6badc8bb47561802
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Under | 51c | 51,767$26,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,206.43 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 19,565$9,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,906.36 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Under | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 49c | 9,681$4,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,896.32 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 49c | 4,555$2,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,322.9 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 70c | 3,400$2,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 48c | 2,500$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.99 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 33c | 1,810$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.12 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 49c | 1,600$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 1,318$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.46 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 49c | 1,182$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.11 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 1,083$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.37 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 49c | 1,077$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.16 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.78 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 50c | 831.98$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.89 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 50c | 729.05$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.1 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 51c | 666.89$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.05 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 49c | 660$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.8 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 49c | 502.73$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.39 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 50c | 406.71$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.36 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 41c | 360.96$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.91 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…000fbacked Over | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Under | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 49c | 259$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.09 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 67c | 253.21$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.91 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 33c | 234$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 49c | 225$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.7 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 49c | 215.16$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.81 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 49c | 183.6$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.98 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Under | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 55c | 139.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 49c | 135$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 133.6$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.07 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 70c | 118$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Over | 49c | 111$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729e…a820backed Under | 52c | 104.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…e1cbbacked Over | 49c | 101$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…5019backed Over | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 66c | 88.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 34c | 88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 81.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Under | 51c | 77.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 51c | 76.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 29c | 68.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…0c9bbacked Over | 77c | 64.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 51c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 51c | 51.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Under | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Over | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 50c | 44.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 31c | 42.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa007…6f94backed Under | 26c | 41.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Over | 49c | 37.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Over | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 50c | 35.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 49c | 30.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 49c | 27.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Over | 49c | 23.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed Over | 69c | 22.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 49c | 21.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb224…dfa6backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.