TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$121,410
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$121,749

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,410 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8b88…8f33backed Philadelphia Phillies49c40,000$19,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,399.9844851.6%231 W · 217 L+0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Washington Nationals51c34,894$17,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,795.751,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed Washington Nationals51c13,990$7,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,125.218943.8%39 W · 50 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies49c10,118$4,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,138.424,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Washington Nationals51c6,922$3,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,530.332,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies19c4,301$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,469.788,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca28…49debacked Philadelphia Phillies51c4,236$2,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0775050%25 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals50c3,316$1,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,663.885,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Washington Nationals51c3,143$1,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,614.532,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc0df…5974backed Philadelphia Phillies50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50022257.2%127 W · 95 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Washington Nationals15c2,726$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.91,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Washington Nationals50c2,449$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.581,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Washington Nationals49c2,410$1,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.971650.7%363 W · 353 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Philadelphia Phillies49c2,272$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.413,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies58c2,141$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.1911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Philadelphia Phillies56c1,787$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.0561351.5%316 W · 297 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals44c1,687$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.4310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b1…e904backed Philadelphia Phillies49c1,500$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.1969351.9%360 W · 333 L+26.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Washington Nationals51c1,111$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.6186653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Washington Nationals52c1,087$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.248646.5%40 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Washington Nationals51c970$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.736048.6%175 W · 185 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Philadelphia Phillies22c905.95$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.6470737.6%266 W · 441 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies11c820$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.984,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Philadelphia Phillies49c672.49$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.324,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Washington Nationals72c521.66$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.754,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Washington Nationals59c480.06$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.931,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Philadelphia Phillies49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1677647.4%368 W · 408 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies49c403.68$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.828,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Philadelphia Phillies48c398$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.963,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Philadelphia Phillies49c365.03$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.1728154.4%153 W · 128 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Philadelphia Phillies80c242.36$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.688053.8%473 W · 407 L+41.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Washington Nationals52c240.19$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.91,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c10…5d44backed Washington Nationals51c235.84$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.898733.3%29 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals51c227.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.286,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Philadelphia Phillies50c218.04$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.0466448.2%320 W · 344 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Philadelphia Phillies49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0840348.4%195 W · 208 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Philadelphia Phillies50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Philadelphia Phillies49c170.35$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.12,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies39c166.8$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.7212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Washington Nationals18c163.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.71,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Philadelphia Phillies50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8094549%463 W · 482 L-38.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Philadelphia Phillies50c158$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.72,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…5273backed Philadelphia Phillies49c148.63$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.853644.6%239 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d3…5639backed Washington Nationals51c143.92$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.420654.4%112 W · 94 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Philadelphia Phillies41c141.52$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.91,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Philadelphia Phillies24c134.66$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.84,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea6e…7c46backed Washington Nationals52c134.62$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7067449.4%333 W · 341 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Philadelphia Phillies49c116.04$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.1847350.7%240 W · 233 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Philadelphia Phillies19c112$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.922,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b54…d382backed Philadelphia Phillies50c110.88$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.447356.2%41 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Washington Nationals29c110.47$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.671,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.622,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x920b…fcfbbacked Washington Nationals51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5116648.8%81 W · 85 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Washington Nationals52c99.35$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3835650.6%180 W · 176 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Philadelphia Phillies46c94$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7699447.3%470 W · 524 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f36…905fbacked Philadelphia Phillies50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4019152.9%101 W · 90 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb155…ca84backed Washington Nationals15c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1235248%169 W · 183 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c49…1862backed Washington Nationals52c76.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4035353.8%190 W · 163 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Washington Nationals51c76.47$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3946659.7%278 W · 188 L+1.9wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Philadelphia Phillies45c72.8$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8382551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Philadelphia Phillies48c71.94$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4158652.7%309 W · 277 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Washington Nationals52c70$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.61,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x60d2…4268backed Washington Nationals49c68$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3214753.1%78 W · 69 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3136…3544backed Washington Nationals52c67.31$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Philadelphia Phillies50c66.88$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4950748.7%247 W · 260 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Philadelphia Phillies49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.673849.3%364 W · 374 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x536e…4fd5backed Washington Nationals50c59.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.918742.8%80 W · 107 L-16.0wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed Philadelphia Phillies50c59$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.546854.5%255 W · 213 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Philadelphia Phillies50c59$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.572154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6871…e9dcbacked Philadelphia Phillies52c57.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.696139.3%24 W · 37 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdef6…d18fbacked Washington Nationals52c57.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3045348.6%220 W · 233 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9382…4ee3backed Washington Nationals52c53.85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2811658.6%68 W · 48 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies25c52$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.975,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x256b…97bbbacked Philadelphia Phillies49c51.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0239149.1%192 W · 199 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfae5…f940backed Philadelphia Phillies51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.581651.8%423 W · 393 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a48…9e7bbacked Washington Nationals51c44.89$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8918848.9%92 W · 96 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals50c44.02$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.013,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Washington Nationals75c43.35$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5674657.8%431 W · 315 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb1…8436backed Philadelphia Phillies49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8227644.9%124 W · 152 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Washington Nationals50c40.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.182,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fcd…724dbacked Washington Nationals52c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.810249%50 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Washington Nationals55c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Washington Nationals49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.677836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1930…691cbacked Philadelphia Phillies50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31c4…622fbacked Philadelphia Phillies50c36.47$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2821549.8%107 W · 108 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x76d2…99a6backed Philadelphia Phillies32c35.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.237852.6%41 W · 37 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Washington Nationals49c34.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0125448.4%123 W · 131 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Philadelphia Phillies48c31.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0364452.2%336 W · 308 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48b9…abe2backed Philadelphia Phillies50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1534843.4%151 W · 197 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Philadelphia Phillies49c29.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.821,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Washington Nationals51c27.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1489950.6%455 W · 444 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e62…79f1backed Philadelphia Phillies46c25.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6942047.9%201 W · 219 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b81…988cbacked Philadelphia Phillies45c25.04$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.771625%4 W · 12 L-4.8wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-53.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Washington Nationals50c24.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4852852.1%275 W · 253 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe947…b01fbacked Washington Nationals51c24.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.433345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7581…21f5backed Washington Nationals50c21.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.692450%12 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Washington Nationals52c19.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.011,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals78c16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.533,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.