Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Execration (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6ff16e19066bd1967df6e7d3a430a506595fb637a56d7481e908af3e9b6d940
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Tundra Esports, Execration
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 24,716$19,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,997.94 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Execration | 24c | 13,130$3,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,205 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdb…4d30backed Execration | 17c | 10,000$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd5…81b0backed Execration | 10c | 1,685$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.49 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Tundra Esports | 76c | 1,548$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.08 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc36b…a540backed Execration | 15c | 1,405$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.28 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Execration | 17c | 1,332$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Execration | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe8…5f44backed Execration | 8c | 734.43$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tundra Esports | 75c | 705.16$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.19 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Execration | 17c | 670.7$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.02 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Execration | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…fc11backed Execration | 20c | 583$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…0c1bbacked Execration | 19c | 570$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe612…abc9backed Execration | 20c | 510$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70c…41d5backed Execration | 20c | 499.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Execration | 20c | 499.63$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6857…9f77backed Execration | 20c | 495$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c02…78cebacked Execration | 24c | 417$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Execration | 17c | 400.46$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 91 | 26.4%24 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…487cbacked Execration | 20c | 364$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Execration | 16c | 356.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a0…5c04backed Execration | 24c | 348$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Execration | 19c | 342.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…2357backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 325$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd32…c9c1backed Execration | 18c | 299.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9258…5237backed Execration | 18c | 290$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…4468backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 279$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5de…dcebbacked Execration | 24c | 273$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Execration | 18c | 266.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | -14.1wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…87d7backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 258$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…c864backed Execration | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Execration | 20c | 245.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17c4…9736backed Execration | 24c | 240$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf591…c231backed Tundra Esports | 76c | 217$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…a5bebacked Execration | 17c | 205.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…2d9fbacked Execration | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da2…0ca7backed Tundra Esports | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Execration | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7adf…1061backed Tundra Esports | 76c | 186$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…7477backed Execration | 15c | 185.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca94…f7c5backed Tundra Esports | 76c | 162$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Execration | 17c | 160$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a7…79c9backed Tundra Esports | 76c | 158$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Execration | 12c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Execration | 18c | 130$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb95…3293backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe070…593cbacked Tundra Esports | 76c | 125$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…6567backed Tundra Esports | 76c | 115$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…34b7backed Tundra Esports | 76c | 115$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…d40ebacked Execration | 25c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…dfd5backed Execration | 12c | 106.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…df1abacked Tundra Esports | 80c | 85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb861…27ffbacked Execration | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked Tundra Esports | 72c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…c6a8backed Execration | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd543…e995backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 28.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…7d17backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.