Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe70d9847abc702049406a8a3c63a931908dfbb7d24a321eca931ea8bb53db2b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 1c | 2,678$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…007ebacked Yes | 77c | 786.08$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 14c | 300.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 75c | 272.7$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.34 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 24c | 220.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 66c | 204.51$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 26c | 191.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 180$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 68c | 144.56$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 8c | 144$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 35c | 141$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 72c | 139.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 20c | 138.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1e…1e21backed Yes | 79c | 114.52$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 26c | 105.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x937d…ec25backed Yes | 79c | 78.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 20c | 74.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 74.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 25c | 61.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 24c | 61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 75c | 60.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 72c | 59.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 25c | 58.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 72c | 51.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 23c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 66c | 44.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 30c | 39.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 74c | 37.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed Yes | 75c | 32.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 57c | 32.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 73c | 20.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…eea4backed Yes | 74c | 20.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.