MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7575a81e063dd32d2663f5d8941b09c450d0a3db29b82d2a1eaba3e71bc30a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 14,902$6,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,123.54 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 4,962$2,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,927.67 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Texas Rangers | 1c | 3,792$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 2,592$1,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,521.47 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 2,222$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.98 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 32c | 1,910$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.71 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 1,188$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.64 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Texas Rangers | 61c | 724.46$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.92 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 698.08$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.87 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Texas Rangers | 17c | 543.84$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…56dcbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 499.98$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…01cebacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 490$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 68cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…3128backed Texas Rangers | 14c | 400$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb03c…b352backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 387.8$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.8 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4923…6866backed Texas Rangers | 58c | 339.99$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…78a1backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…15b9backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 203.39$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Texas Rangers | 28c | 201.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 191.64$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.64 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…3326backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 168$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Texas Rangers | 58c | 142.86$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 113.59$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 111.48$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 110$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Texas Rangers | 19c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Texas Rangers | 35c | 67.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 50.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…caebbacked Texas Rangers | 63c | 50.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffae…adaebacked Texas Rangers | 61c | 45.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 589 | 43.1%254 W · 335 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked Texas Rangers | 31c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 36.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 34.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 33.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 33.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 27.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…9199backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 24.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Texas Rangers | 60c | 24.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Texas Rangers | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- NRFI: Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
- Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.