MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79579a006511c057f19e957868a31b670fc088a35175b3483ee6654a0e3eb9bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Over | 47c | 6,028$2,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,837.92 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 46c | 6,005$2,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,762.27 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 53c | 4,288$2,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,998.08 | 624 | 47.6%297 W · 327 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29cc…3c29backed Under | 53c | 4,273$2,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,008.31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 3,125$1,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.83 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Under | 53c | 1,085$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…1118backed Under | 56c | 1,081$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.69 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 3c | 964$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 48c | 949.84$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.63 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…2c8abacked Under | 54c | 906.07$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.07 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -9.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 53c | 895.76$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.01 | 849 | 49.1%417 W · 432 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 708.18$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.65 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 16c | 546.74$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.52 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 52c | 480$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.4 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 433.39$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.05 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 47c | 409$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.23 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 53c | 264$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.08 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Over | 15c | 258.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c50…2de6backed Over | 47c | 252$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef86…5afcbacked Over | 47c | 230$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 52c | 213.07$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.28 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60c…d2e2backed Over | 48c | 212$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 171 | 51.5%88 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d3…3128backed Under | 54c | 206.67$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.07 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb996…038cbacked Over | 47c | 198$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…9c89backed Over | 47c | 149$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 152 | 57.2%87 W · 65 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed Over | 15c | 133.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec38…ca10backed Over | 47c | 125$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4a…1a5cbacked Over | 47c | 117.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88a0…f673backed Over | 47c | 117$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 262 | 55.7%146 W · 116 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 46c | 102.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 52c | 100.53$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…457fbacked Over | 47c | 94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 319 | 49.5%158 W · 161 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…705cbacked Over | 47c | 94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Under | 53c | 83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 228 | 51.3%117 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 15c | 82.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b5b9backed Under | 54c | 81.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Over | 47c | 81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 280 | 49.6%139 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Over | 17c | 74.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 41c | 74.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 52c | 71.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef92…f133backed Over | 46c | 68.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -5.7wins | -0.36per pick | 54cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Over | 48c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 1,306 | 50.7%662 W · 644 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Over | 27c | 61.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…ab3dbacked Over | 48c | 61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Over | 47c | 55.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…3a77backed Over | 48c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…3d55backed Over | 48c | 53.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…5fa2backed Over | 47c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 45c | 51.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 46c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed Over | 47c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 293 | 52.9%155 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…4ce0backed Over | 48c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 162 | 56.2%91 W · 71 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17a9…56b8backed Over | 47c | 44.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…a9cebacked Over | 47c | 43.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 140 | 50.7%71 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfb…e01fbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…8eb4backed Over | 48c | 40.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…21b1backed Over | 48c | 40.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked Under | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7133…69d6backed Over | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ba…fc31backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 48c | 32.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…9199backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa18f…c57abacked Over | 48c | 31.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6472…81e3backed Over | 46c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Under | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Over | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 457 | 49%224 W · 233 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked Over | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 612 | 50.5%309 W · 303 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…9a83backed Over | 48c | 25.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc3…ba8ebacked Over | 48c | 24.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ac…40d1backed Over | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2c…d5cdbacked Over | 48c | 21.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 65c | 17.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60d…03a8backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- NRFI: Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.