MLB · resolved market
NRFI: Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21604fe9f0acb30f0674965a451646ca7110b8efce6ce71d720049df2411522f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5aa1…2c8abacked No | 48c | 7,619$3,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,987.08 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Yes | 53c | 2,970$1,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.58 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 58c | 1,521$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.99 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 42c | 1,300$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 53c | 1,138$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.24 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed No | 49c | 769.39$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.39 | 119 | 61.3%73 W · 46 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 75c | 726$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 42c | 499.97$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.48 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed No | 42c | 455.36$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.11 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed No | 45c | 440.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.46 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…6736backed No | 45c | 366.67$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.67 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 44c | 280.46$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.23 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 47c | 234.04$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.04 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked Yes | 57c | 228.07$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 45c | 47.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae9…0624backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Philliesthis page
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.