TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. AA Estudiantes: 1st Half O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,234
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,239

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,234 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca0…d7a0backed Over29c6,655$1,963 inLost-$1,962.8414829.7%44 W · 104 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under71c2,000$1,410 inWon+$5901,94451.3%998 W · 946 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under70c1,607$1,125 inWon+$482.11,35549.7%674 W · 681 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under71c1,583$1,124 inWon+$459.122,33551.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L+2.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed Under73c1,025$749 inWon+$276.8721366.7%142 W · 71 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Over27c1,000$270 inLost-$27019742.1%83 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under71c547.71$389 inWon+$158.843,74938.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L-33.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under71c528$375 inWon+$153.121,65150.6%836 W · 815 L-4.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Over29c450$131 inLost-$130.59244.6%41 W · 51 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+40.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Under70c200$140 inWon+$6019559.5%116 W · 79 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under70c100$70 inWon+$3024956.6%141 W · 108 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Under70c100$70 inWon+$3021358.7%125 W · 88 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Under70c100$70 inWon+$3028851.7%149 W · 139 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Under70c100$70 inWon+$3023056.5%130 W · 100 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under73c87.8$64 inWon+$23.418,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under71c61$43 inWon+$17.692,61154.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc8e…944ebacked Under73c34.02$25 inWon+$9.2113167.9%89 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Under70c20$14 inWon+$624257%138 W · 104 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Under70c19.2$13 inWon+$5.7615359.5%91 W · 62 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.