South American Leagues · resolved market
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8870ab2718cc298106bdc255341b5248a2b7931baaa2f4c484e6b1159d23fa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked Over | 47c | 51,594$24,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,344.77 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 33,530$17,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,731.7 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 58c | 3,496$2,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,041.99 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 69c | 2,749$1,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.8 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 53c | 1,606$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.67 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 53c | 1,582$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.12 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 53c | 1,527$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.53 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 53c | 1,072$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.03 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Under | 53c | 1,045$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.16 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 40c | 828.78$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.37 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Under | 55c | 828.14$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.68 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 49c | 670.01$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.25 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Under | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Under | 53c | 566$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.98 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…6b95backed Over | 48c | 520.83$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.83 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 62c | 508.58$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.32 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Under | 55c | 499.39$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.74 | 191 | 64.4%123 W · 68 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 51c | 475.85$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.15 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 42c | 470$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 45c | 443.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.99 | 157 | 68.2%107 W · 50 L | +21.8wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 74c | 402.78$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 212 | 52.4%111 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 51c | 387.16$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.3 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 53c | 363.28$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.54 | 264 | 65.9%174 W · 90 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 53c | 361.17$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.04 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 53c | 335.33$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.05 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Under | 74c | 300.05$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.04 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 54c | 292.92$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.03 | 126 | 62.7%79 W · 47 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c6…4727backed Over | 38c | 255.26$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…8d8bbacked Over | 38c | 253.32$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 44c | 226.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.08 | 206 | 65%134 W · 72 L | +24.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Under | 7c | 220.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 53c | 214.26$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.56 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 39c | 198.37$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.56 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe200…1b78backed Under | 11c | 190$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Over | 51c | 180$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 45c | 170.22$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.62 | 217 | 65.4%142 W · 75 L | +24.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…1b50backed Under | 53c | 106.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6935backed Under | 55c | 97.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Under | 49c | 91.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Under | 54c | 88.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 52c | 83.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 164 | 59.8%98 W · 66 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 64c | 68.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked Under | 54c | 66.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 50c | 66.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 194 | 37.1%72 W · 122 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…f983backed Over | 45c | 64.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d0…7534backed Under | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 47c | 59.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 55c | 56.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…a242backed Under | 54c | 56.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c22…7b22backed Under | 53c | 55.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Over | 79c | 48.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 133 | 73.7%98 W · 35 L | +22.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…301fbacked Over | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…5166backed Over | 49c | 38.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 20 | 95%19 W · 1 L | +7.3wins | +0.36per pick | 59cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 49c | 34.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Over | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfa…5e79backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 53c | 23.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb445…e4a3backed Under | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 1.5this page
- CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. AA Estudiantes: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. AA Estudiantes: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. AA Estudiantes: AA Estudiantes 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. AA Estudiantes: AA Estudiantes O/U 0.5Over won
- CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. AA Estudiantes: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. AA Estudiantes: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. AA Estudiantes: CS Independiente Rivadavia O/U 2.5Under won
- CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 0.5Over won
- CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 2.5Over won
- CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 3.5Under won
- CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AA Estudiantes (-1.5)CS Independiente Rivadavia won
- Spread: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-1.5)AA Estudiantes won
- Spread: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-2.5)AA Estudiantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.