Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe793421201b8a9175aeab5f70cfef2ec0a512696c88b6a3121d9771871fdc61d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 0c | 30,043$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…3b9bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,014$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 389.85$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…c5dbbacked No | 26c | 360.79$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.76 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 67c | 325.74$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.76 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed Yes | 72c | 277.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 14c | 271.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.67 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d44…e684backed Yes | 22c | 254.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 30c | 237.83$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.13 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 34c | 222.77$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.08 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 46c | 216.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 58c | 202.07$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.33 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 49c | 191.78$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.36 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed No | 24c | 184.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.83 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 67c | 181.57$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.32 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 32c | 180.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes | 59c | 163.13$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.55 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 160.19$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 143$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 49c | 141.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.57 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f44…f982backed Yes | 46c | 130.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 126.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 38c | 125.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dd…3f39backed Yes | 42c | 118.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 19c | 116.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.17 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 49c | 112.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 102.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 48c | 77.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 75.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 27c | 75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 72.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed No | 15c | 68.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 54c | 66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 64.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 62.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 48c | 62.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 49c | 61.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 51c | 58.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 73c | 57.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 47c | 55.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 46c | 52.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 34c | 52.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 33c | 51.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 69c | 48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 58c | 46.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 49c | 45.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…524abacked Yes | 49c | 40.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c3…eba4backed Yes | 49c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 27c | 40.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 43c | 39.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 35c | 38.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 55c | 36.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 48c | 35.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 48c | 33.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 35c | 30.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 30.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed Yes | 49c | 29.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 78c | 29.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 56c | 28.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a6…cfc0backed Yes | 75c | 28.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 51c | 27.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 73c | 27.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 52c | 27.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 40c | 26.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 76c | 25.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes | 79c | 22.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 44c | 22.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 69c | 22.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bb…b0f7backed Yes | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 58c | 20.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4771…b432backed No | 61c | 19.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 72c | 15.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…0356backed Yes | 78c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C or below on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.