Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe79e7508796c117d0563e304ebbdb6dbc82c32141db1665b64adb9987c34b5a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed No | 53c | 390.91$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.2 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 36c | 291.34$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.7 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 50c | 276.16$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.06 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 237.44$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 229.89$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 37c | 198.8$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…8e23backed No | 80c | 196.69$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 162.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 160$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 30c | 147.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 31c | 117.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 117.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.51 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 98.48$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 35c | 93.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 89.84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 33c | 82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 71c | 80.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 75.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c6…4d0fbacked Yes | 26c | 75.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…3aa0backed No | 55c | 72.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 71.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 51c | 60.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 35c | 52.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 59c | 49.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 34c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 33.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 68c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 34c | 31.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 79c | 27.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 43c | 26.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 20.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 66c | 19.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 65c | 18.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 64c | 16.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C or higher on August 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.