Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C or higher on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x403fea368e659da681df1541ba9fff574795bc857e81475ca21236ab7d2749d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.53 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 17c | 219.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.19 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 217.44$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.99 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 14c | 213.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.38 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 19c | 209.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.79 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 199.76$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 19c | 180.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.88 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 159.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 150$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 146.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…e4f9backed Yes | 9c | 141$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.77 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 9c | 129.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 25c | 119.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.2 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 117.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 114.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.05 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 19c | 96.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 19c | 95.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 76c | 94.17$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 20c | 82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 58c | 74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 72.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 68.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 23c | 59.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 61c | 55.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 74c | 39.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 76c | 39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 65c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 77c | 25.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc799…e4f6backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 47c | 25.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 62c | 16.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C or higher on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.