Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x445967cc0c461180a6e6a0573d8e9af8b183511d0dcf625c6d55dcb8df20a285
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 2,333$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.59 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 58c | 849.35$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.75 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 46c | 417$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.07 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 57c | 231.93$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.21 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 230$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.86 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 62c | 209.79$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.79 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 50c | 179.96$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 169.44$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 159.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 151.44$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 41c | 147$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 16c | 121.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 102$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 33c | 99.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 99.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 89.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 88.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 61c | 83.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 73.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 60c | 73.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 50c | 72.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 60c | 71.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 71.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 47c | 60.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 60c | 60.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 55c | 59.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 44c | 56.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 41.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 37c | 40.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 41c | 36.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 43c | 35.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 63c | 33.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed No | 61c | 32.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 32.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 55c | 32.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 40c | 32.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 79c | 31.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 53c | 31.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 50c | 29.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 44c | 27.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 52c | 25.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 57c | 25.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 46c | 22.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 22.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 54c | 20.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 58c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…ef8abacked No | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 18.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 60c | 18.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C or higher on August 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.