TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-08-28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,689,694
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,743,060

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,689,694 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 635 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes80c146,969$116,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,027.792832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed Yes80c118,612$94,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,722.323154.8%17 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes80c108,127$86,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,666.134148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked No20c84,993$16,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,998.692347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe419…8aedbacked No4c79,336$2,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,934.133327.3%9 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc41d…74fdbacked No17c75,355$12,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,470.94742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No19c69,041$13,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,166.556854.4%37 W · 31 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No20c67,486$13,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,658.614839.6%19 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x087d…b872backed No20c58,750$11,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,75010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ee8…89debacked No16c51,617$8,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,412.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked No20c50,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0004440.9%18 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6b…96e1backed No1c49,920$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes80c49,777$39,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,070.812100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed No20c46,500$9,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,3653243.8%14 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed No20c42,000$8,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,399.972321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-40.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed No8c36,392$2,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,744.264129.3%12 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-51.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed No21c31,059$6,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,522.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No21c29,157$6,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,106.311,69145%761 W · 930 L+6.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb340…1ad1backed Yes79c25,763$20,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,511.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No21c25,000$5,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,249.9916946.2%78 W · 91 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed No12c23,259$2,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,843.2648030.6%147 W · 333 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56d8…1ccebacked No6c21,858$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0e6…584bbacked No20c21,080$4,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,21610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes80c17,926$14,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,585.938637.2%32 W · 54 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed No20c17,677$3,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,535.393432.4%11 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x620b…2e9fbacked No20c17,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,399.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No21c16,886$3,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,518.9273151.7%378 W · 353 L+25.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked No20c16,696$3,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,334.8815055.3%83 W · 67 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b62…5cc8backed No21c15,000$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,15010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ca…7895backed No19c13,800$2,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,621.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca64…4f43backed Yes75c13,307$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,306.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71ac…d2b1backed Yes79c12,658$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,658.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8861…8f1abacked Yes79c11,766$9,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,421.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c80…08ffbacked No21c10,506$2,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,206.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b56…715ebacked Yes77c10,099$7,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,322.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked No20c10,058$2,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,057.74633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked No20c10,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed No23c10,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.963652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed No21c8,877$1,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,864.191526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked No20c8,600$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.99520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-60%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b8…e424backed No20c8,512$1,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,702.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed No20c8,397$1,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.967145.6%306 W · 365 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…97cfbacked No2c8,123$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.3330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No15c7,092$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.9586032.7%281 W · 579 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5e…185ebacked Yes80c7,077$5,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed No21c7,032$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.011233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b29…ab1cbacked Yes79c6,329$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,329.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79ab…d7a7backed Yes80c6,250$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b6…fa47backed No21c6,250$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.51533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed01…83a8backed No11c6,188$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.88911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-83.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6876…8dc9backed Yes76c6,041$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6683…f5f4backed Yes80c6,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick65cpaid+32.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes79c5,403$4,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.7814250%71 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3be2…91a0backed Yes80c5,400$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd260…9fd5backed No20c5,334$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0353…c2ffbacked Yes80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes78c5,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.981866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes77c4,832$3,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.362138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-36.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e62…17c2backed Yes80c4,800$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9601100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc73a…8a83backed No19c4,768$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No9c4,492$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.6351442.2%217 W · 297 L-1.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa462…7b59backed No2c3,972$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c2…13d2backed Yes80c3,765$3,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8930…db72backed Yes80c3,750$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7501100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96c2…5741backed Yes80c3,676$2,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x381b…4d74backed Yes79c3,326$2,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Yes80c3,299$2,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.883275%24 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+25.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e90…4f65backed No22c3,273$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.661637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf742…e039backed Yes76c3,252$2,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa24e…1be8backed No21c3,000$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.03728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe12c…e7c7backed Yes80c2,894$2,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.75540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe954…1ef1backed No21c2,729$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ddc…03c3backed No20c2,707$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.41931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+20.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf402…4c5abacked Yes78c2,700$2,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5941100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bc5…e563backed Yes75c2,668$2,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Yes77c2,504$1,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9531…9099backed Yes80c2,500$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5001100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1058…01c1backed Yes77c2,487$1,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.55366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Yes76c2,456$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.773948.7%19 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7997…5e4bbacked Yes79c2,450$1,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No21c2,325$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.457251.7%296 W · 276 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a4a…3da9backed No21c2,250$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cb3…04dbbacked Yes79c2,148$1,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70a6…a2ebbacked No33c2,140$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.1120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7523…68a0backed Yes80c2,096$1,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.95650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x478f…0f06backed Yes73c2,021$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Yes79c2,000$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4201100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae5…4f22backed Yes79c2,000$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4202975.9%22 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73f6…a10abacked Yes79c2,000$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4201100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes79c2,000$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4205552.7%29 W · 26 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b8…36ddbacked Yes80c2,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No15c1,992$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.412,56439.8%1,020 W · 1,544 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No21c1,914$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.8827445.3%124 W · 150 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12e7…39a0backed No20c1,804$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7418…251fbacked No14c1,779$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.116860.3%41 W · 27 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+18.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4c1…6b32backed Yes80c1,738$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.7887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick69cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa442…3b25backed Yes80c1,738$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcba…c950backed Yes79c1,708$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.643100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb580…9ba2backed Yes80c1,688$1,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34c8…9978backed No20c1,600$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.