Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-08-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9607f2259dc5c2b94f068034a7cead205fc440cb72b5f4afdd842d1a6c7d06cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $524,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $470,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $524,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 4c | 150,596$5,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,757.71 | 480 | 30.6%147 W · 333 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Yes | 7c | 87,497$6,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,249.79 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 8c | 31,807$2,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,542.73 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 3c | 25,510$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.41 | 514 | 42.2%217 W · 297 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 8c | 20,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 169 | 46.2%78 W · 91 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…f760backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 7c | 11,849$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.19 | 1,691 | 45%761 W · 930 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 7c | 11,613$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.93 | 731 | 51.7%378 W · 353 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…97cfbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 3c | 8,824$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 545 | 40.9%223 W · 322 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Yes | 6c | 7,930$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.8 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 7c | 7,300$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.77 | 860 | 32.7%281 W · 579 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Yes | 8c | 5,500$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 8c | 5,216$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.47 | 310 | 45.2%140 W · 170 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 7c | 3,510$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe954…1ef1backed Yes | 8c | 3,488$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 8c | 3,307$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.87 | 341 | 46%157 W · 184 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Yes | 7c | 3,142$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24e…1be8backed Yes | 9c | 2,973$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 3c | 2,945$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 150 | 55.3%83 W · 67 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 7c | 2,810$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.08 | 671 | 45.6%306 W · 365 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 8c | 2,559$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.95 | 433 | 45%195 W · 238 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…9959backed Yes | 8c | 2,138$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 393 | 46.3%182 W · 211 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fb…d07cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,802$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,721$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.94 | 56 | 73.2%41 W · 15 L | +12.2wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Yes | 12c | 1,333$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.97 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 4c | 1,128$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 1,024 | 44.4%455 W · 569 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 4c | 1,103$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 7c | 1,094$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 274 | 45.3%124 W · 150 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -90%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 8c | 944.21$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Yes | 11c | 915.65$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.83 | 69 | 62.3%43 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb3…c372backed Yes | 7c | 762$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1330…b4b5backed Yes | 10c | 699.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c9…a4fcbacked Yes | 9c | 619.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 6c | 561$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…ee5bbacked Yes | 8c | 537.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…4892backed Yes | 4c | 526.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e4…68bebacked Yes | 4c | 508.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Yes | 7c | 499.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3804…6136backed Yes | 9c | 444$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8aa…e4d1backed Yes | 11c | 436.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8886…beffbacked Yes | 5c | 426.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f08…ead2backed Yes | 6c | 399.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed Yes | 9c | 395.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 8c | 312.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 234 | 46.6%109 W · 125 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…9dabbacked Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked Yes | 4c | 287.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698f…ae41backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 450 | 55.3%249 W · 201 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Yes | 10c | 223.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…eadfbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.38per pick | 34cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2458…bd24backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a69…c2a0backed Yes | 10c | 176.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 8c | 166$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 572 | 51.7%296 W · 276 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Yes | 11c | 127.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Yes | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-08-28?this page
- Will FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-08-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.