Europa Conference League · resolved market
Beşiktaş JK vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe845d710f08f583d8e1779abca4a3842e5e8e5d5528a56cb59335a22f801475b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 28c | 3,308$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.55 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 7c | 3,076$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.92 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 2,849$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.32 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe12…728fbacked Over | 36c | 1,389$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 1,111$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.65 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 64c | 1,033$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.84 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 27c | 738.69$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.64 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb763…cce5backed Under | 63c | 600$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 36c | 563.72$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.24 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 65c | 491.8$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.37 | 275 | 45.8%126 W · 149 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…85fbbacked Under | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 49c | 383.86$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.54 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 39c | 323.59$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 31c | 260.8$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.26 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 75c | 240$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…c640backed Under | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 7c | 193.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 83 | 16.9%14 W · 69 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 64c | 169$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c27…54f2backed Over | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 36c | 119.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 73c | 116$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 67c | 113.32$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 61c | 107.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 68c | 104.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 54c | 90.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 64c | 78.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 27c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…1e9abacked Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Over | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Over | 22c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 64c | 44.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 65c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 36c | 41.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Under | 53c | 34.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 63c | 33.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…6be7backed Under | 75c | 19.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…802bbacked Under | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +7.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Under | 68c | 16.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Beşiktaş JK vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 3.5this page
- Beşiktaş JK vs. FC Midtjylland: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Beşiktaş JK vs. FC Midtjylland: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Beşiktaş JK vs. FC Midtjylland: Beşiktaş JK O/U 0.5Over won
- Beşiktaş JK vs. FC Midtjylland: Beşiktaş JK O/U 1.5Under won
- Beşiktaş JK vs. FC Midtjylland: Beşiktaş JK O/U 2.5Under won
- Beşiktaş JK vs. FC Midtjylland: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Beşiktaş JK vs. FC Midtjylland: FC Midtjylland O/U 0.5Under won
- Beşiktaş JK vs. FC Midtjylland: FC Midtjylland O/U 1.5Under won
- Beşiktaş JK vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 0.5Over won
- Beşiktaş JK vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 1.5Under won
- Beşiktaş JK vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 2.5Under won
- Beşiktaş JK vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 4.5Under won
- Beşiktaş JK vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Beşiktaş JK (-1.5)FC Midtjylland won
- Spread: Beşiktaş JK (-2.5)FC Midtjylland won
- Spread: FC Midtjylland (-1.5)Beşiktaş JK won
- Spread: FC Midtjylland (-2.5)Beşiktaş JK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.