MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe86a59855102cacd4676a7cb47913a612272112e23b9a8a013931e5d42ae1fd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 54c | 2,402$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.65 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes | 47c | 1,765$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.51 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 47c | 1,367$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.71 | 3,562 | 51%1,817 W · 1,745 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked No | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 47c | 500$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.5 | 5,567 | 50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L | +25.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked No | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 46c | 265.23$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.22 | 816 | 47.4%387 W · 429 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 45c | 249.77$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.51 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed No | 53c | 169.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Yes | 46c | 167$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.66 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +9.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 45c | 107$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 496 | 53.4%265 W · 231 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…1d21backed No | 53c | 76.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jaysthis page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue JaysKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 13.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.