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MLB · resolved market

Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$150,024
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$149,957

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,024 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e94…5ba1backed Over49c97,737$47,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,846.0749049%240 W · 250 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Over48c37,706$18,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,607.31,44949.5%717 W · 732 L-3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under52c23,586$12,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,152.873,56251%1,817 W · 1,745 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under51c16,515$8,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,422.651,47851%754 W · 724 L-19.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under51c14,357$7,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,322.8611,65352.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L+214.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Under51c10,250$5,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,227.528353%150 W · 133 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under51c10,051$5,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1264,42747.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L-77.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Under53c8,632$4,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,574.7390149.1%442 W · 459 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under52c6,645$3,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,453.8611,10251.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L+135.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under51c6,173$3,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1486,13255.4%3,395 W · 2,737 L+346.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Under51c4,500$2,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,31050351.9%261 W · 242 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8efa…894cbacked Under52c4,002$2,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,061.0449245.9%226 W · 266 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under51c3,333$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.871,60448.6%779 W · 825 L-2.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under51c3,000$1,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5365,56750.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L+25.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Under51c2,999$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.6580355.7%447 W · 356 L+22.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Under51c2,600$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32648348.4%234 W · 249 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under52c2,174$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.641,69749.1%834 W · 863 L+3.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Under51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02046451.1%237 W · 227 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Under51c1,988$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.6681647.4%387 W · 429 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under51c1,981$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.157,07850.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L+1.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under51c1,273$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.2349146.4%228 W · 263 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x39cb…46e8backed Under51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004259.5%25 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked Under51c800$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40830053.7%161 W · 139 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed Under37c718$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.6613757.7%79 W · 58 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over66c717.2$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.312,17551.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L+54.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed Under51c617.25$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.836052.2%188 W · 172 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked Under51c600$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30629252.4%153 W · 139 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked Under51c581$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.3138449%188 W · 196 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Under51c571.65$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.541,74549.1%857 W · 888 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0d23…251cbacked Under51c571.65$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.5412852.3%67 W · 61 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over57c503.14$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.733,13948.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L-10.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fca…3487backed Under51c388.63$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.23158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under51c384.61$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.152,59761.5%1,596 W · 1,001 L+72.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over63c356.78$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.018,30446.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed Under52c319.37$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.1324948.2%120 W · 129 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x369e…d016backed Under51c310.68$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16012461.3%76 W · 48 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff19…3ebebacked Under51c308.63$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.441948.4%203 W · 216 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd3c…35cfbacked Under51c256$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.5615053.3%80 W · 70 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under51c250$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.51,93944.5%862 W · 1,077 L-29.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe66f…0f3ebacked Under51c246.9$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.925658.9%33 W · 23 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over58c235.47$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.99,89146.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L+40.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under45c212$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.198,48447.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L+79.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under52c208.12$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.221,87750.2%943 W · 934 L-6.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10017048.2%82 W · 88 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Under51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10216448.2%79 W · 85 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Under51c199.1$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5458451.5%301 W · 283 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2470…dc4dbacked Under53c188.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007054.3%38 W · 32 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7523…68a0backed Under51c178$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.781936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-31.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Under56c155.25$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9417442%73 W · 101 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc15c…6122backed Under33c153.25$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.656026.7%16 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under35c152.04$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.838,68252.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L+505.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ad6…eab6backed Under51c138.03$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.442245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x796f…00f6backed Over59c126.49$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4431247.8%149 W · 163 L-1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7f…d002backed Under51c120.47$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.445453.7%29 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5312558.4%73 W · 52 L-0.5wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Under51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5179350.1%397 W · 396 L+1.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Over43c96.81$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7135748.5%173 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under52c94.2$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.583,03648%1,458 W · 1,578 L+16.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under52c85.5$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3874752.5%392 W · 355 L+17.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6f9…27c8backed Under33c78.09$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.771457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8599…ad67backed Under51c66.61$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.974748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over47c66$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.983,86642.3%1,636 W · 2,230 L+4.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Under51c61.36$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0957252.1%298 W · 274 L+2.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under51c55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282,44450.1%1,225 W · 1,219 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e6…b490backed Under53c50.55$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.792138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-25.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Under52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7587254.2%473 W · 399 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09da…56ffbacked Under51c49.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255945.8%27 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3003…30f5backed Under51c49.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259861.2%60 W · 38 L+12.4wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+26.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Under43c40.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3645850.2%230 W · 228 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf2…ac54backed Under28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.211551.3%59 W · 56 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed Under32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9937856.9%215 W · 163 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80ef…6d36backed Under51c39.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203040%12 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdce3…6431backed Under52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddfc…cd9ebacked Under51c34.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6817250%86 W · 86 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under37c32.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9458139.4%229 W · 352 L-0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba5e…153bbacked Under51c31.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1615451.3%79 W · 75 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Under51c30.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.741,04951.9%544 W · 505 L+2.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Under44c27.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2194456.5%533 W · 411 L+32.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90f…a908backed Under51c27.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9110154.5%55 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58f…cec8backed Under51c23.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.213246.9%15 W · 17 L-4.7wins-0.15per pick62cpaid-26.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Over49c20.51$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4662249.2%306 W · 316 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Under52c20.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3494069.3%651 W · 289 L+93.5wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+14%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Over68c16.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2143951.5%226 W · 213 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.