MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02fc5ecc9dd231b90e4b64d1ee79aca4cfe1829f2affe55547866ef72ca2e93a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 63c | 28,207$17,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,770.11 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 37c | 20,060$7,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,637.91 | 908 | 46.5%422 W · 486 L | +27.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 50c | 16,210$8,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,104.95 | 1,449 | 49.5%717 W · 732 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 7,492$3,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,703.18 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 1,672$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.35 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 53c | 1,045$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.69 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8400…274cbacked Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 39c | 916$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.7 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 660.47$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.93 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 46c | 590$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.6 | 302 | 51%154 W · 148 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 62c | 511.64$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.01 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 37c | 510.83$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.82 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Over | 51c | 446.63$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.57 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 49c | 384.86$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.41 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 50c | 281.64$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.91 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 76c | 271.42$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 61c | 250.38$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.73 | 486 | 50.2%244 W · 242 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 39c | 221$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.81 | 384 | 49%188 W · 196 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 53c | 207.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6122backed Under | 54c | 184.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Under | 53c | 175.78$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.73 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 42c | 161.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 581 | 39.4%229 W · 352 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f9…27c8backed Under | 50c | 157.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.58 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 62c | 124.38$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.87 | 5,567 | 50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L | +25.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 37c | 118$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 5,861 | 43.7%2,562 W · 3,299 L | -190.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 60c | 117.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 40c | 114.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 551 | 51.2%282 W · 269 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 61c | 111$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 2,372 | 49.7%1,179 W · 1,193 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 39c | 98.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 40c | 92.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 280 | 46.4%130 W · 150 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Over | 43c | 67.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 37c | 66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 3,866 | 42.3%1,636 W · 2,230 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 42c | 52.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 813 | 51.7%420 W · 393 L | +20.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 53c | 52.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 439 | 51.5%226 W · 213 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2,444 | 50.1%1,225 W · 1,219 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Over | 59c | 49.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 27c | 41.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…ac54backed Over | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 38c | 33.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 357 | 48.5%173 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 49c | 33.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 378 | 56.9%215 W · 163 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 51c | 32.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 206 | 49.5%102 W · 104 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 52c | 27.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 622 | 49.2%306 W · 316 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 62c | 25.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 940 | 69.3%651 W · 289 L | +93.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue JaysKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 13.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.