MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe51bb07cc7f32c1f9dedc0a9ee7fea1678b4091421716e99de51ca8a31943e69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 57c | 34,883$19,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,999.69 | 490 | 49%240 W · 250 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 57c | 17,277$9,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,428.91 | 1,449 | 49.5%717 W · 732 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 43c | 15,520$6,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,673.75 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 42c | 10,088$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,199.56 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 43c | 5,405$2,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,324 | 6,132 | 55.4%3,395 W · 2,737 L | +346.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 43c | 5,000$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150 | 1,310 | 50.2%658 W · 652 L | +19.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290 | 503 | 51.9%261 W · 242 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 43c | 2,548$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.59 | 1,604 | 48.6%779 W · 825 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 43c | 2,369$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.78 | 816 | 47.4%387 W · 429 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 43c | 2,200$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946 | 483 | 48.4%234 W · 249 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 5,567 | 50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L | +25.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 50c | 1,902$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951 | 2,077 | 39.3%817 W · 1,260 L | -27.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 50c | 1,797$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.5 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 56c | 1,768$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.9 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 76c | 1,525$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.85 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 43c | 1,353$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.79 | 491 | 46.4%228 W · 263 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 57c | 1,327$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.45 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 56c | 973.18$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.2 | 1,697 | 49.1%834 W · 863 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 43c | 814$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.02 | 1,548 | 48.6%753 W · 795 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked Under | 44c | 800$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 300 | 53.7%161 W · 139 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked Under | 44c | 600$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 292 | 52.4%153 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 43c | 558.66$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.22 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 43c | 541.15$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.72 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 44c | 540.46$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.8 | 360 | 52.2%188 W · 172 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 44c | 454.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,597 | 61.5%1,596 W · 1,001 L | +72.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 20c | 399$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 1,906 | 49.3%940 W · 966 L | +25.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 31c | 363.77$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.77 | 1,979 | 53.2%1,052 W · 927 L | +45.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 58c | 353$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.46 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 11c | 337$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 4,445 | 45%2,001 W · 2,444 L | +87.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fca…3487backed Under | 44c | 336.8$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.19 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Over | 56c | 327.41$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.06 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 43c | 287$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.41 | 384 | 49%188 W · 196 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 44c | 264.09$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 419 | 48.4%203 W · 216 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Under | 43c | 256$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 150 | 53.3%80 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 50c | 251.02$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.45 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe66f…0f3ebacked Under | 43c | 216.19$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.96 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 164 | 48.2%79 W · 85 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 44c | 188.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.01 | 249 | 48.2%120 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 43c | 183.26$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 584 | 51.5%301 W · 283 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 28c | 172.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 44c | 169.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.44 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…c5c3backed Under | 44c | 159.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 43c | 158$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 2,372 | 49.7%1,179 W · 1,193 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7f…d002backed Under | 44c | 102.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…eab6backed Under | 43c | 101.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 39c | 91.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 357 | 48.5%173 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8599…ad67backed Under | 44c | 56.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 43c | 55.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Under | 52c | 52.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 227 | 60.4%137 W · 90 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 44.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 3,036 | 48%1,458 W · 1,578 L | +16.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 44c | 26.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1,049 | 51.9%544 W · 505 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue JaysKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 13.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.