Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Tearlaments (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe877935fc823fb78e647ccabb75cf364fe460cd5d979745dbfba6b8f5aff4a7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yakult Brothersof Yakult Brothers, Tearlaments
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Tearlaments | 0c | 11,184$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Tearlaments | 32c | 2,178$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.64 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…fccbbacked Tearlaments | 1c | 1,920$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tearlaments | 19c | 1,757$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.35 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked Yakult Brothers | 70c | 1,721$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.79 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Tearlaments | 38c | 1,517$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.57 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe08e…1d61backed Yakult Brothers | 68c | 1,474$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.72 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Tearlaments | 32c | 1,468$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.78 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…e98cbacked Yakult Brothers | 65c | 1,372$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.68 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Tearlaments | 39c | 1,188$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.1 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Tearlaments | 38c | 913.05$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.96 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yakult Brothers | 66c | 908.04$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.54 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Tearlaments | 38c | 883.72$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.63 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed Yakult Brothers | 61c | 795.8$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.57 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Yakult Brothers | 62c | 648.68$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.59 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Tearlaments | 34c | 542.46$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.9 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Tearlaments | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Yakult Brothers | 71c | 492.98$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.54 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Yakult Brothers | 65c | 491.35$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.35 | 50 | 78%39 W · 11 L | +7.4wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Yakult Brothers | 62c | 451.61$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.61 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Tearlaments | 25c | 400.35$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Tearlaments | 33c | 394.17$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.08 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…ff14backed Tearlaments | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Tearlaments | 35c | 223.52$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | -14.1wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…269dbacked Tearlaments | 26c | 216.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x479f…5bfcbacked Yakult Brothers | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Yakult Brothers | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Yakult Brothers | 69c | 191.74$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x871c…7f0abacked Yakult Brothers | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f2…3263backed Yakult Brothers | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 61 | 75.4%46 W · 15 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…3d14backed Tearlaments | 45c | 154.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Yakult Brothers | 65c | 154.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2495…28f5backed Yakult Brothers | 63c | 139$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Yakult Brothers | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Tearlaments | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Yakult Brothers | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Tearlaments | 39c | 80.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Tearlaments | 28c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked Tearlaments | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 34.8%40 W · 75 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…5769backed Yakult Brothers | 61c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Tearlaments | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…5845backed Yakult Brothers | 66c | 47.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yakult Brothers | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked Yakult Brothers | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b00…7cbbbacked Yakult Brothers | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…9ea9backed Tearlaments | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cc…3f0fbacked Yakult Brothers | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 59 | 72.9%43 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked Yakult Brothers | 61c | 32.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Yakult Brothers | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9904…c9b1backed Yakult Brothers | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 45 | 77.8%35 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Yakult Brothers | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Yakult Brothers | 71c | 28.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3099…d252backed Yakult Brothers | 70c | 27.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4275…a0efbacked Tearlaments | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Yakult Brothers | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc8…21f0backed Yakult Brothers | 62c | 23.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb59b…916bbacked Yakult Brothers | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…b6f8backed Yakult Brothers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1317…00e8backed Tearlaments | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x406c…bc37backed Yakult Brothers | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4b…84c9backed Yakult Brothers | 74c | 18.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.