Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe87f3f7d0e83905eea7412fb11c6d7afe3d42af1f991d55b86c259d772e98def
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 521.54$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.13 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 54c | 432.22$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.97 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 418.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked Yes | 51c | 405.17$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.27 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 21c | 359.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.33 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed No | 52c | 338.47$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.95 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 61c | 260.85$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 44c | 215.83$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.87 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 54c | 203.66$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.87 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 45c | 198.39$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.11 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 197$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 194.06$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 183.22$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.77 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 71c | 160$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 58c | 140.54$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 12c | 133.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 47c | 130.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.46 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 50c | 128.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 116.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 107.47$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 48c | 106.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 106.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 103.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 46c | 103.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 44c | 103.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 96.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 66c | 95.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 93.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 87.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 87.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 47c | 64.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 42c | 64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 62.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 30c | 60.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 23c | 55.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 51.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…9d4cbacked Yes | 24c | 49.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 41c | 49.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 50c | 40.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 56c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 44c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 39c | 38.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 48c | 38.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 44c | 37.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 40c | 36.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 36.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 55c | 34.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 60c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 46c | 32.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 57c | 31.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 59c | 31.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 69c | 28.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed Yes | 54c | 27.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 59c | 23.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 52c | 23.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 67c | 20.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…6e1cbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…270cbacked Yes | 71c | 15.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.