Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb00ea2f63c9e34ab13d477e1fdd1817fe9e1884dcd4a31003d53e764e3ede49c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 35c | 1,431$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.46 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 1,153$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.69 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 39c | 565.09$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.8 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 550.87$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.63 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 43c | 510.91$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.91 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 408$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.04 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 400$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed Yes | 51c | 330.73$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.15 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 20c | 294.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 276.85$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 258$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 66c | 250$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 37c | 218.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.59 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 43c | 213.6$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.75 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 212.41$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed Yes | 71c | 210.5$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 197$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 196$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 18c | 192.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked No | 59c | 184.73$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.15 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 47c | 151.04$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.46 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 56c | 143.65$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.66 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 58c | 130.22$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 44c | 118.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.81 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 57c | 115$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 58c | 115$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 113$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 103$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 64c | 102.16$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 90.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 26c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 33c | 89.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 88.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 84.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 30c | 76.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 55c | 72.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 27c | 67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 40c | 60.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 65c | 58.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 33c | 56.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…d8bebacked No | 67c | 56.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 69c | 55.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 54.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 37c | 53.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 20c | 49.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9558…fdc5backed Yes | 70c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 43c | 42.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 54c | 40.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 40.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 59c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21a5…437ebacked No | 70c | 36.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 46c | 33.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x163d…7c69backed No | 64c | 31.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 58c | 30.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked No | 68c | 29.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 55c | 27.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1b4fbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…0d55backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 53c | 23.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 60c | 20.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 58c | 20.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 17.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.