Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon: Nakashima vs. Opelka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8aa4106c88855dbfc2e42252a31d81a02fdfa3936233659049021e589812ebe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakashimaof Nakashima, Opelka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed Opelka | 17c | 14,832$2,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,482.14 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…18debacked Nakashima | 70c | 6,337$4,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,884.47 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Opelka | 29c | 5,396$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.86 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nakashima | 66c | 3,131$2,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.59 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Opelka | 34c | 3,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.99 | 607 | 53.7%326 W · 281 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6948…4370backed Opelka | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +64%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Opelka | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f1…3282backed Opelka | 31c | 985$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Opelka | 33c | 899.99$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…6318backed Nakashima | 70c | 875$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Opelka | 12c | 846.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Opelka | 5c | 750$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d5…990ebacked Nakashima | 69c | 705$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Opelka | 15c | 670.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…a89cbacked Opelka | 32c | 400$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Nakashima | 74c | 374.99$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.21 | 321 | 31.2%100 W · 221 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Opelka | 12c | 369$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Nakashima | 70c | 340.04$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.56 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…e879backed Opelka | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Opelka | 35c | 310$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.76 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Opelka | 36c | 278.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Opelka | 37c | 271.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Opelka | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Opelka | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Opelka | 33c | 180$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc4…0f48backed Nakashima | 69c | 180$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Opelka | 12c | 180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Nakashima | 70c | 179.98$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Opelka | 7c | 159.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 91 | 30.8%28 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Opelka | 15c | 146$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f8…cb84backed Nakashima | 70c | 105$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…c02fbacked Opelka | 32c | 100.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Nakashima | 67c | 97.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…9f26backed Opelka | 33c | 93.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20f2…2dccbacked Nakashima | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355a…98a6backed Nakashima | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 188 | 39.9%75 W · 113 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Nakashima | 71c | 70.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Opelka | 31c | 65.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…6b0bbacked Nakashima | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Opelka | 33c | 59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Opelka | 32c | 46.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Nakashima | 66c | 45.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c3…b35abacked Nakashima | 67c | 37.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…7084backed Opelka | 32c | 37.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…e7aabacked Opelka | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6f…9b0bbacked Opelka | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cc…3f0fbacked Nakashima | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd422…cf05backed Nakashima | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00d…b0e5backed Nakashima | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…f3cfbacked Nakashima | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ec…f243backed Nakashima | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.