NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8c08b864ec95c56c3f88aeca4aa094a2d6332e603e8a38bd19fd9f76691f334
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Cavaliers, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Cavaliers | 43c | 8,838$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,800.13 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 4,560$2,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,006.48 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers | 57c | 4,299$2,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,865.02 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Trail Blazers | 59c | 1,339$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.85 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Cavaliers | 41c | 1,083$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.03 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Cavaliers | 46c | 955.98$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.75 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Trail Blazers | 57c | 937$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.91 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 851$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.48 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers | 49c | 835.1$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.29 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 43c | 725$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.78 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Trail Blazers | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 424.96$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.48 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cavaliers | 44c | 392$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.48 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cavaliers | 45c | 240.8$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.36 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Trail Blazers | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 51.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 51.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 569 | 45.3%258 W · 311 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Cavaliers | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Cavaliers | 45c | 31.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Cavaliers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Cavaliers | 56c | 18.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)this page
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.