NBA · resolved market
Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35de49bb9c9140bad93a980b82801ffb8fda755fc091e26bc64319404c465348
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 70c | 6,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 30c | 4,206$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,944.43 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 1,567$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.44 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 47c | 1,050$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.5 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Under | 30c | 700$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 156 | 56.4%88 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 674.03$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.87 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 43c | 658.64$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.27 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Under | 43c | 499.94$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.97 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Over | 53c | 374$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.07 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 47c | 354.58$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.68 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 57c | 164$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.48 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 37c | 151.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Over | 61c | 143.63$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 58c | 119$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Over | 61c | 113.52$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7549…0ccdbacked Over | 55c | 78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…29f7backed Over | 58c | 70.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeac5…2003backed Over | 63c | 66.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 41c | 58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Over | 58c | 48.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 148 | 41.9%62 W · 86 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…8f36backed Under | 46c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a7…b732backed Under | 45c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 69c | 23.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5this page
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.