NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecd9d8ba96f5beee20aa27d94c1d26ab157587e86c5a34b8fa016663c4a7e9cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Cavaliers, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Cavaliers | 54c | 3,119$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Cavaliers | 59c | 2,697$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.22 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers | 46c | 2,546$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378.78 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Cavaliers | 54c | 1,723$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.42 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216a…9380backed Cavaliers | 59c | 1,695$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Trail Blazers | 41c | 1,292$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.35 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers | 46c | 1,265$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.42 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Trail Blazers | 41c | 736.98$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.82 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Trail Blazers | 41c | 731.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.71 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Cavaliers | 2c | 599.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers | 41c | 574$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.66 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 508.7$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.7 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Trail Blazers | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 437.35$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.54 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Trail Blazers | 42c | 315.94$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.25 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Cavaliers | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 294 | 58.5%172 W · 122 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Trail Blazers | 41c | 251.22$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.22 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 247$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.85 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Trail Blazers | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Trail Blazers | 42c | 205$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.9 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 194.55$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Trail Blazers | 41c | 115.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.96 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf304…0cc0backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed Trail Blazers | 41c | 98.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4741backed Cavaliers | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49a0…29acbacked Trail Blazers | 42c | 88.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 86.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…79cbbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 49.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc6…bfb4backed Cavaliers | 55c | 49.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Trail Blazers | 41c | 44.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Cavaliers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Cavaliers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1ef0backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Trail Blazers | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Cavaliers | 59c | 28.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 244 | 23.8%58 W · 186 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Cavaliers | 52c | 27.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)this page
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.