NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f0c6cd9d91cb81a9708e5dc4ce00c904bf5fd122858b0f8eb2e294aa98ee091
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Cavaliers, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cavaliers | 47c | 9,865$4,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,605.82 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Trail Blazers | 55c | 8,046$4,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,620.65 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 5,087$2,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,460 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 3,399$1,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,534 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Cavaliers | 47c | 1,680$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.6 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 1,303$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.99 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…0fc6backed Cavaliers | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 949.54$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.04 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 843$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.07 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Trail Blazers | 55c | 685.78$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.6 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers | 56c | 541$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.04 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 44c | 398$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.12 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cavaliers | 45c | 292.2$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.11 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 209.62$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.62 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cavaliers | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…11ecbacked Trail Blazers | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Cavaliers | 42c | 34.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 49c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)this page
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.