Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Yosuke Watanuki vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9116c987d7cc537c11a6dc05075d50d55c90a8c4c897da2867b3052745e3e32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kjaerof Watanuki, Kjaer
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Kjaer | 55c | 8,793$4,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,953.51 | 765 | 46.8%358 W · 407 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Watanuki | 45c | 3,809$1,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.04 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…a759backed Kjaer | 56c | 2,396$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.37 | 339 | 55.2%187 W · 152 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Kjaer | 54c | 1,850$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.93 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Watanuki | 31c | 1,594$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.15 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Watanuki | 34c | 1,525$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.16 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Watanuki | 45c | 1,396$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.1 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Watanuki | 45c | 1,354$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.39 | 784 | 52.9%415 W · 369 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Watanuki | 46c | 1,256$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.88 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Watanuki | 45c | 899$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.03 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc3…c0eabacked Watanuki | 44c | 821.9$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.63 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Kjaer | 46c | 806.18$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.64 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kjaer | 47c | 585.51$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.54 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Watanuki | 45c | 555.56$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 434 | 48.4%210 W · 224 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Watanuki | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Kjaer | 23c | 425$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.25 | 265 | 35.5%94 W · 171 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Watanuki | 36c | 387$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.52 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -8.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Watanuki | 44c | 373$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.12 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Kjaer | 29c | 268.58$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.28 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…7dcebacked Watanuki | 49c | 241.67$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.66 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -6.2wins | -0.25per pick | 33cpaid | -77%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Kjaer | 59c | 235.87$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.42 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Watanuki | 72c | 234.72$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.64 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Watanuki | 45c | 226.6$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.97 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Kjaer | 69c | 194.34$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Kjaer | 54c | 185.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.34 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Kjaer | 62c | 160$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Watanuki | 47c | 159.84$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.12 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Kjaer | 30c | 153.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.27 | 288 | 33.3%96 W · 192 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Watanuki | 46c | 151.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Watanuki | 27c | 147.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 930 | 48.8%454 W · 476 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Kjaer | 34c | 126.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.59 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Watanuki | 51c | 124.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Kjaer | 79c | 118.61$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Watanuki | 45c | 116.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Kjaer | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Watanuki | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 341 | 54.3%185 W · 156 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Watanuki | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,161 | 44.3%514 W · 647 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Kjaer | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Watanuki | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Kjaer | 51c | 95.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Watanuki | 45c | 94.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Watanuki | 23c | 91.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33ec…0fb5backed Watanuki | 42c | 90.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Kjaer | 55c | 90.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda6…925abacked Watanuki | 45c | 88.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Kjaer | 53c | 88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…e98fbacked Kjaer | 59c | 85.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…1068backed Watanuki | 58c | 76.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf81…601dbacked Kjaer | 67c | 75.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Watanuki | 62c | 74.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Watanuki | 41c | 69.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Kjaer | 50c | 65.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Watanuki | 48c | 63.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2ec1backed Kjaer | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Kjaer | 54c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 320 | 49.1%157 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…8c1ebacked Kjaer | 59c | 52.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 184 | 60.3%111 W · 73 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed Watanuki | 54c | 52.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Watanuki | 46c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…aa77backed Kjaer | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Watanuki | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Watanuki | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Watanuki | 63c | 41.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…30d9backed Watanuki | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b00…cfbdbacked Watanuki | 77c | 37.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…bc18backed Watanuki | 52c | 37.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Watanuki | 52c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Kjaer | 59c | 26.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…da58backed Watanuki | 47c | 26.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…98abbacked Kjaer | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…7426backed Kjaer | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 139 | 64.7%90 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.