Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe93852094fa9df46eda2920230093aadfd288dc14447935f96639d0c4d89b2f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 601.11$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 33c | 326.91$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.2 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 312.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.76 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 296.45$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 259.13$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebd…ae71backed Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 248.92$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 65c | 161.8$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.98 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 51c | 139.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 125.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.04 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 67c | 120$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.35 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 117.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 36c | 112.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.28 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 34c | 103.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.73 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 38c | 77.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 17c | 75.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 70.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 32c | 66.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 70c | 64.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 60.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 55.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 53.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63bc…abc5backed Yes | 33c | 53.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…c520backed Yes | 59c | 49.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78e5…c577backed Yes | 67c | 44.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…b116backed Yes | 42c | 42.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 79c | 42.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 68c | 39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 31c | 36.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 36c | 35.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…ac1abacked Yes | 78c | 33.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 75c | 32.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 32.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 34c | 30.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 50c | 30.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 21.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 68c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 67c | 21.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…a539backed Yes | 71c | 20.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.