NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Heat: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe94146665de6dcf7d70b44fd615c3da2c1b6ad7a27672387205c10aaf02425f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $202,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $202,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 50c | 157,562$78,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78,781.17 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Over | 50c | 75,000$37,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,500 | 518 | 44.4%230 W · 288 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Over | 50c | 28,757$14,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,378.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Over | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 53c | 13,392$7,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,040 | 359 | 42.1%151 W · 208 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 13,122$6,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,645.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 50c | 12,500$6,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,250 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Over | 49c | 8,163$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,163.13 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400.48 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 52c | 4,499$2,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,159.52 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Under | 49c | 4,249$2,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,081.79 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 47c | 3,729$1,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.39 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 50c | 2,682$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.4 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Under | 50c | 2,680$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Over | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 2,155$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.67 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 50c | 2,042$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.89 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Over | 50c | 1,368$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.05 | 398 | 42.5%169 W · 229 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 320 | 51.9%166 W · 154 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd5…9c28backed Over | 52c | 880$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.4 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Over | 50c | 435.48$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.74 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Under | 51c | 400$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 306 | 41.8%128 W · 178 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 52c | 208.29$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.98 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 51c | 131.44$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Over | 49c | 87.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Under | 48c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…1e04backed Under | 49c | 40.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Over | 49c | 33.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Over | 51c | 31.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 49c | 31.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…d8dabacked Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Over | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c6…5004backed Over | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88a8…8707backed Over | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…c8fbbacked Over | 51c | 20.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Heat: O/U 232.5this page
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Magic vs. HeatMagic won
- Magic vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Magic vs. Heat: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Magic vs. Heat: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Magic vs. Heat: O/U 228.5Over won
- Magic vs. Heat: O/U 229.5Over won
- Magic vs. Heat: O/U 230.5Over won
- Magic vs. Heat: O/U 231.5Over won
- Magic vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Magic won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Magic won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 10.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.