TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Heat, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$87,613
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,329

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,613 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x68dd…f0b2backed Magic51c32,189$16,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,910.5351350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Heat50c18,967$9,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,483.3439842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Magic51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,90077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Heat49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9006152.5%32 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Heat49c7,034$3,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,413.514,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Magic51c7,000$3,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4301,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb5c…36f0backed Heat49c6,327$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1002955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Heat48c5,117$2,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,455.471,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Heat48c5,078$2,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,453.442648.1%205 W · 221 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Heat47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,349.9912144.6%54 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Magic50c4,753$2,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,376.4487451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a6…0009backed Magic53c4,717$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,216.984254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf35f…64c5backed Heat47c4,190$1,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,975.794862.5%30 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Heat50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat48c3,888$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,880.069,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Magic52c3,502$1,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,681.162,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic51c2,408$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,178.114,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Heat54c2,206$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.993,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Magic46c2,099$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.471,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98da…a9ebbacked Heat50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007041.4%29 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3d…55b3backed Magic53c1,936$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.923548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d5…47efbacked Heat48c1,930$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.410642.5%45 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Magic53c1,887$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.798153.1%43 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Heat50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75065339.5%258 W · 395 L-24.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Magic51c1,500$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.613,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a94…822cbacked Heat48c958.33$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46021355.9%119 W · 94 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8415…dfe1backed Heat49c870$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.319647.4%93 W · 103 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Magic52c857.52$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.6165750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Heat48c625$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30066046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Magic52c522.64$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.8789050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic49c521.63$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.098,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68a9…e73abacked Heat49c510.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25021045.2%95 W · 115 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Heat50c494$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2471,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Magic50c445.86$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.73,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Heat50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015543.2%67 W · 88 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Heat51c379$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.0919350.3%97 W · 96 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e68…3215backed Magic53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3611755.6%65 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Heat49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10063447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Heat50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10059144.5%263 W · 328 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Heat48c187.5$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9025347%119 W · 134 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Heat47c177.92$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.623,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Magic52c143.79$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0215649.4%77 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8727…164ebacked Magic50c142$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb405…c706backed Magic51c140$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.614949.7%74 W · 75 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c1c…b4f1backed Heat50c140$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704252.4%22 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe77b…f10abacked Heat51c130.14$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.310953.2%58 W · 51 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Magic52c129.83$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.143,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Heat50c126.4$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.64,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ae…811bbacked Heat47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017545.7%80 W · 95 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Magic41c105$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9544821.4%96 W · 352 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbfd…46f8backed Heat49c102.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013142.7%56 W · 75 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15f9…607ebacked Heat50c94.83$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4220651%105 W · 101 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Magic53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3449852.4%261 W · 237 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x370e…dc78backed Magic50c90$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce0a…9949backed Magic50c90$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5735…4c95backed Magic50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Heat48c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.445146.1%208 W · 243 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42e2…3d27backed Magic50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401540%6 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-26.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x29fe…74e1backed Magic50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Magic52c69$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1242143.7%184 W · 237 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b3a…1440backed Magic51c52.33$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.636541.5%27 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6c6…5004backed Heat51c50.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.743441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Heat50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.021,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Heat48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2438252.4%200 W · 182 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Heat46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Heat52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2649351.7%255 W · 238 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1ae…bf68backed Magic50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbb4…4436backed Magic51c49.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.02875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+58.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc3b…5c15backed Magic51c49.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.021361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7797…78d3backed Magic52c46.15$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.151566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+27.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Heat48c46.12$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1443244%190 W · 242 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Heat48c45.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6550841.7%212 W · 296 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8efe…c8fbbacked Heat50c41.19$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.81656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Heat49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2039736.3%144 W · 253 L-27.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc0f…bbfebacked Magic51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.611650.9%59 W · 57 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Magic51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2268542.6%292 W · 393 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f5f…08afbacked Magic51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.221040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3518…c4aebacked Heat51c39.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.811241.1%46 W · 66 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Magic53c39$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3333360.4%201 W · 132 L+17.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x889b…bbaebacked Magic51c37.25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.251266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x050f…6b27backed Magic50c35.01$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.397723.4%18 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf229…245dbacked Magic49c32.65$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.651546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Heat51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.31,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3da1…c13bbacked Heat50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1542146.1%194 W · 227 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f7…06c5backed Heat49c26.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.817750.8%90 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb818…e961backed Heat50c22.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51dd…c727backed Magic49c21$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.713145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Heat51c20.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.417153.5%38 W · 33 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x862d…2632backed Magic49c20.41$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.415145.1%23 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a51…ef48backed Magic50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106642.4%28 W · 38 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x66ff…c93fbacked Magic50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.