TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,588
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,613

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,588 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros78c1,056$819 inLost-$818.6212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Cleveland Guardians23c1,005$233 inWon+$771.8765549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Houston Astros50c897$448 inLost-$448.454,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians50c892$446 inWon+$44610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Cleveland Guardians19c210.41$40 inWon+$170.122,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros79c198.51$156 inLost-$155.862,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians19c194.05$37 inWon+$157.498,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Houston Astros77c55.16$42 inLost-$42.4344553.5%238 W · 207 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Houston Astros77c51.77$40 inLost-$39.8327345.4%124 W · 149 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Cleveland Guardians49c38.84$19 inWon+$201,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x46b1…428cbacked Houston Astros51c38.84$20 inLost-$2019163.4%121 W · 70 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8882…c67dbacked Houston Astros77c32.05$25 inLost-$24.68650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29d8…e1b3backed Houston Astros76c26.31$20 inLost-$2044345.6%202 W · 241 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.